No major war in Asia (over 100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and American deaths combined) over disputed islands will occur in 2016.

Judged over calendar year 2016. True: no armed conflict over disputed islands in Asia (e.g. Senkaku/Diaoyu, Spratly, Paracel, Dokdo/Takeshima) caused more than 100 combined Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and American deaths during 2016. False: reliable reporting shows such a conflict or clashes over islands caused more than 100 combined deaths from those four nationalities in 2016. Mostly false: island-related clashes caused a large number of deaths that lands close to the 100 threshold but does not pass it, and only if the count is genuinely disputed. Deaths of other nationalities, and deaths not tied to an island dispute, do not count toward the threshold.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 East China Sea: Japan Rescues Chinese Fishermen Near Disputed ... The Diplomat · 12 August 2016

   “China’s Foreign Ministry said that its own ships were working with Japanese vessels to search for the eight fishermen who remained missing.”

2. E2 East China Sea: Japan Rescues Chinese Fishermen Near Disputed ... The Diplomat · 12 August 2016

   “Japan’s Foreign Ministry has reported that, beginning on August 5, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have escorted hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels into the 12 nautical mile territorial sea around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.”

3. E3 2. Armed conflict and peace processes SIPRI Yearbook 2017 (citing UCDP data) · 2017

   “Asia was second with 15 active conflicts.”

4. E4 [PDF] UCDP Dyadic Dataset - UCDP - Uppsala Conflict Data Program Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University

   “UCDP defines armed conflict as: “a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year”.”

5. E5 UCDP Dyadic Dataset Codebook, Version 17.21 Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

   “results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year”

6. E6 UCDP Dyadic Dataset Codebook, Version 17.21 Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

   “In version 17.2, the 2016 conflicts have been added to the dataset.”

7. E7 Senkaku Islands dispute Wikipedia

   “The Senkaku Islands dispute, or Diaoyu Islands dispute, is a territorial dispute over a group of”

8. E8 China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations in the East China Sea and Japan's Response Adam P. Liff (academic chapter, PDF)

   “Although Chinese forces did not attempt island landings in August 2016,”

9. E9 The ASEAN Crisis, Part 1: Why the South China Sea Is a Critical Test The Diplomat · 21 December 2016

   “In the case of Vietnam, the three consecutive years of 2014, 2015, and 2016 observed a considerable number of deadly clashes between Vietnamese fishing boats and Chinese naval boats, in which the Chinese naval vessels intentionally attacked and sank Vietnamese fishing boats.”

10. E10 The ASEAN Crisis, Part 1: Why the South China Sea Is a Critical Test The Diplomat · 21 December 2016

    “For example, in January 1974, the Battle of the Paracel Islands between China and Vietnam led to the deaths of 36 troops from both sides.”

11. E11 Republic of Korea National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), Maritime Awareness Project · 25 September 2020

    “October 2016: A fleet of forty Chinese fishing vessels sink a Korea Coast Guard vessel in the Yellow Sea, leading to diplomatic tensions.”

The evidence describes some 2016 island-related incidents with no death counts (E1, E2, E8, E11) and reports deadly China–Vietnam clashes in 2016 without figures (E9). No item gives a total of deaths among the four nationalities in island disputes in 2016, or states that no such conflict took place (E3 counts 15 active conflicts in Asia without naming them).