The Crisis came largely from unfettered globalization, particularly from governments propping up large companies.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
'The Crisis' means the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. The claim is that it came 'largely' from unfettered globalization, particularly from governments propping up large companies (for example implicit too-big-to-fail guarantees that created moral hazard). Judge against authoritative analyses such as the US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report, central bank and IMF post-mortems, and the academic consensus. TRUE: these sources identify globalization and government support of large firms as a primary cause. MOSTLY TRUE: these sources identify too-big-to-fail moral hazard and global financial integration as major causes, but stress them somewhat less than 'largely' implies. MIXED: these sources treat them as significant contributing factors among several co-equal causes, such as mortgage lending, leverage, securitisation, regulatory failures and rating agencies. MOSTLY FALSE: these sources treat them as minor or disputed factors, or the bailouts mainly came after the crisis began and so are a response rather than a cause, while the main causes lie elsewhere. FALSE: authoritative analyses reject these factors as causes.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 I. Beyond the rescue: exiting intensive care and finishing the reforms - BIS 80th Annual Report - June 2010 Bank for International Settlements · June 2010
“The varying opinions on the origin of these flows and the resulting build-up of cross-country claims – excessive domestic demand in some major advanced economies; a savings glut; a dearth of investment opportunities; demand for international, low-risk assets for portfolio diversification; or the building-up of war chests by emerging market economies – are secondary.”
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E2 I. Beyond the rescue: exiting intensive care and finishing the reforms - BIS 80th Annual Report - June 2010 Bank for International Settlements · June 2010
“Rating agencies, overwhelmed by the avalanche of complex structured products yet unable to resist the profits from taking on the business, failed to correctly evaluate the probability that borrowers would repay.”
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E3 I. Beyond the rescue: exiting intensive care and finishing the reforms - BIS 80th Annual Report - June 2010 Bank for International Settlements · June 2010
“Indeed, the events coming out of Greece highlight the possibility that highly indebted governments may not be able to act as buyer of last resort to save banks in a crisis. That is, in late 2008 and early 2009, governments provided the backstop when banks began to fail.”
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E4 Gambling with Other People's Money Hoover Institution · 11 February 2019
“Russ Roberts argues that these explanations miss the underlying cause of the mess: the past bailouts of large financial institutions that allowed these institutions to gamble carelessly because they were effectively using other people’s money rather than their own.”
Reasoning
The quoted BIS evidence mentions rating-agency failures and government backstops in late 2008 and early 2009 (E2, E3), but it does not rank globalization or government support of large firms against other causes. Only one author's argument names past bailouts as the underlying cause (E4). This is not enough to place the claim in any band of the criteria.
Cite this claim
Nassim Taleb, “The Crisis came largely from unfettered globalization, particularly from governments propping up large companies.” (said 10 July 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_38b3bf64a721, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_38b3bf64a721
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.