ClaimsScott Alexander

“In terms of general speedup, we’re already at like a thousand times research speedup, multiplier compared to the Paleolithic or something.”

Scott Alexander, interviewee 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

The general research speedup multiplier today is about a thousand times that of the Paleolithic era.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Reasoning

A general research speedup multiplier versus the Paleolithic era is not a well-defined measurable quantity.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The general research speedup multiplier today is about a thousand times that of the Paleolithic era.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_30fb4e1e2fe8, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_30fb4e1e2fe8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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