ClaimsWarren Buffett

“The skid will almost certainly continue.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 2007 Berkshire Hathaway 2006 Letter to Shareholders (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Buffalo News operating profits fell in 2007 and kept falling or stayed below the 2006 level through 2009. Mostly true: profits fell overall in 2007–2009, with one flat or slightly better year. Mixed: results went up and down with no clear trend. Mostly false: profits mostly held steady or rose, with only a small dip. False: profits rose in 2007–2009.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 2007Annual Meeting berkshireletters.com (third-party archive of Berkshire meeting transcripts) · 1 May 2007 Own record

    “I mean, we own the Buffalo News. And the Buffalo News earnings have been — they’re certainly down over 40 percent from the peak.”

  2. E2 Buffalo, Buffett-Style - Editor and Publisher Editor & Publisher · 1 January 2010

    “Profit margins run at about 11%, he adds, admitting that's down from the 20% profits of just five years ago.”

  3. E3 Publisher reviews The News’ financial picture Buffalo Newspaper Guild (buffaloguild.org) · 28 January 2011

    “The operating profit at The Buffalo News — how much money it made before taxes — rose from 2009 to 2010.”

Reasoning

E1 is Buffett's own remark at the 2007 meeting that Buffalo News earnings were down more than 40% from their peak. It describes the decline up to the time of the prediction, not what happened afterward. E2, published at the start of 2010, reports profit margins of about 11%, down from 20% five years earlier. That is a margin, not operating profit, and it gives no figures for each of 2007, 2008 and 2009 against the 2006 level. E3 covers only 2009 to 2010, which is outside the period being judged. The evidence points to profitability being lower around 2009 than mid-decade, but it does not show the year-by-year path the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue.” (said 2007). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_30e268d1d6ed, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_30e268d1d6ed

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “we will get out of it.”

    The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one.”

    Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2007
    “Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide.”

    Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.”

    HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.