ClaimsRay Dalio

“a fair amount of that debt will be stress-tested and there will be issues pertaining to that.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee 11 November 2018 Transcript: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater (Ritholtz) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

If the next recession brings a decline in earnings, a fair amount of the debt Dalio was discussing will be stress-tested and there will be issues with it.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague prediction about 'the next recession' with no horizon and undefined 'fair amount'.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “If the next recession brings a decline in earnings, a fair amount of the debt Dalio was discussing will be stress-tested and there will be issues with it.” (said 11 November 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2cffe74de87d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2cffe74de87d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Ray Dalio

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  3. Mostly true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think you will see greater interest rate cuts as you start to see the world economy starting to slow down.”

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  4. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “In an evolutionary way, over the next one, two and three years, there will be a turn for the worse, yes.”

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  5. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think that in the next two years, let's say prior to the next election, there's probably a 40 percent chance of a recession.”

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All of them

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