ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“But for for this one, it's not obvious that it evolves to become less lethal because it's actually already super contagious and it's asymptomatic for a long period of time.”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee 13 March 2020 #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 — The Knowledge Project (HappyScribe)

Prediction Biosecurity

SARS-CoV-2 is not necessarily going to evolve to become less lethal, since it is already highly contagious and asymptomatic for long periods.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

'Not necessarily' hedged prediction with no horizon is not testable.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “SARS-CoV-2 is not necessarily going to evolve to become less lethal, since it is already highly contagious and asymptomatic for long periods.” (said 13 March 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2c51f020e1e0, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2c51f020e1e0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Balaji Srinivasan, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan

  1. Mostly true Prediction 29 March 2020
    “Just like the first bailout greased the skids, this won’t be the last lockdown.”

    The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown.

  2. Mixed Prediction 13 March 2020
    “And it may turn out that we need to make testing extremely routine, which would basically mainstream genomics.”

    Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics.

  3. Mixed Prediction 13 March 2020
    “I think we're going to see the Great Firewall of China, where they'll be sequencing and testing the heck out of everybody, scanning the country constantly to see, OK, is a virus rising and then…”

    Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 13 March 2020
    “But it may turn out that we tested very, very large number of people because there may be more spreaders than we think.”

    A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 13 March 2020
    “Now that's going to go to real time, meaning within a day or an hour before you get on the flight.”

    Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.