ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“But it may turn out that we tested very, very large number of people because there may be more spreaders than we think.”

Balaji Srinivasan, podcast guest 13 March 2020 #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 — The Knowledge Project (HappyScribe)

Prediction Biosecurity

A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged at end-2021. Two parts: (a) very large numbers of people were tested (mass, population-scale testing, e.g. hundreds of millions of tests in large countries or programmes that tested whole populations or cities); and (b) this happened because there were more spreaders than assumed, shown by evidence of substantial asymptomatic or undetected transmission that drove testing of people without symptoms. TRUE: both are documented. MOSTLY TRUE: mass testing happened and asymptomatic spread was recognised, but the two were only loosely linked in policy. MIXED: only one part holds. MOSTLY FALSE: testing grew but stayed limited mainly to people with symptoms, and the extent of spreading was roughly as first assumed. FALSE: no mass testing happened and spread was not larger than assumed.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Coronavirus: China's plan to test everyone in Wuhan BBC News · 14 May 2020

    “As of 1 June, a total of 9.9 million people had been tested, according to the city health authorities.”

  2. E2 Coronavirus: China's plan to test everyone in Wuhan BBC News · 14 May 2020

    “The authorities said they had found just 300 positive cases (all without symptoms) out of all the tests done”

  3. E3 Liverpool to be regularly tested for coronavirus in first whole city testing pilot UK Government (GOV.UK) · 3 November 2020

    “These tests will help identify the many thousands of people in the city who don’t have symptoms but can still infect others without knowing.”

  4. E4 Latest analysis of Liverpool’s Covid testing pilot shows benefits to city population - University of Liverpool News University of Liverpool · 23 November 2022

    “The pilot offered supervised voluntary lateral flow testing to all people over the age of five years without symptoms who were living or working in Liverpool from 6 November 2020 to 2 January 2021.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows city-wide mass testing, which meets part (a): Wuhan reported 9.9 million people tested by 1 June 2020 [E1], and Liverpool offered testing to everyone over five without symptoms from November 2020 to January 2021 [E3, E4]. For part (b), the UK government said the Liverpool programme was meant to find the "many thousands" of people without symptoms who could still infect others, which ties the testing to spread without symptoms [E3]. However, Wuhan's testing found only 300 positive cases, all without symptoms [E2]. No item gives direct evidence that spread was larger than first assumed, so the link holds for one programme and is otherwise weak.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed.” (said 13 March 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_10563a29f38a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_10563a29f38a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Balaji Srinivasan, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan

  1. Mostly true Prediction 29 March 2020
    “Just like the first bailout greased the skids, this won’t be the last lockdown.”

    The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown.

  2. Mixed Prediction 13 March 2020
    “And it may turn out that we need to make testing extremely routine, which would basically mainstream genomics.”

    Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics.

  3. Mixed Prediction 13 March 2020
    “I think we're going to see the Great Firewall of China, where they'll be sequencing and testing the heck out of everybody, scanning the country constantly to see, OK, is a virus rising and then…”

    Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 13 March 2020
    “Now that's going to go to real time, meaning within a day or an hour before you get on the flight.”

    Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 13 March 2020
    “Within a few weeks, the folks who have severe conditions may have long term impact that we're not aware of because it's so new that we don't know what that long term impact is.”

    People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.