ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“And it may turn out that we need to make testing extremely routine, which would basically mainstream genomics.”

Balaji Srinivasan, podcast guest 13 March 2020 #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 — The Knowledge Project (HappyScribe)

Prediction Biosecurity

Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged at end-2021. The claim has two linked parts: (a) COVID testing became extremely routine, meaning frequent repeat testing built into ordinary life for large parts of the population (for example mass free home antigen tests, routine workplace or school screening, testing required for travel or venues); and (b) this mainstreamed genomics, meaning genomic or nucleic-acid sequencing and analysis became a widespread, everyday technology (for example large-scale routine viral genome sequencing for variant surveillance in many countries, and broad public familiarity with or consumer use of molecular or genomic testing). TRUE: both (a) and (b) are documented. MOSTLY TRUE: (a) clearly holds and genomic sequencing grew greatly and became routine in public health, but not quite in everyday consumer use. MIXED: (a) holds but there is no meaningful mainstreaming of genomics beyond specialist labs (or the reverse). MOSTLY FALSE: testing grew but stayed occasional or symptom-driven for most people, with no mainstreaming of genomics. FALSE: testing never became routine for most people and genomics did not spread beyond specialist use. The claim's hedge ('may') does not lower the bar for the outcome itself.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Twice weekly rapid testing to be available to everyone in England UK Government (GOV.UK, Department of Health and Social Care) · 5 April 2021

    “Everyone in England, including those without symptoms, will be able to take a free rapid coronavirus (COVID-19) test twice a week”
  2. E2 COVID-19: general public testing behaviours UK Health Security Agency (GOV.UK) · 19 October 2023

    “At the end of March 2022 (the period just before the end of UTO), the percentage of people who had taken an LFD test in the last 2 weeks dropped to 40% (6) from the peak of 59% in January 2022.”
  3. E3 COVID-19: general public testing behaviours UK Health Security Agency (GOV.UK) · 19 October 2023

    “The UTO paved the way for widespread community based self-testing for COVID-19, allowing all individuals the means to rapidly assess their likelihood of being infectious without needing to use a laboratory process.”
  4. E4 [PDF] Nathan D. Grubaugh, PhD - Congress.gov US Congress, House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (written testimony of Yale School of Public Health epidemiologist Nathan D. Grubaugh) · 12 May 2021

    “The United States has so far sequenced 0.5-1% of the total COVID-19 cases, though sequencing has significantly increased in recent months.”

Reasoning

E1 shows that from April 2021 everyone in England, including people without symptoms, could take a free rapid test twice a week. E3 describes this as widespread community self-testing. Together they support part (a), routine frequent testing, at least in England. E2's figure of 59% testing within two weeks is from January 2022, just after the end-2021 judging date. For part (b), the only evidence is E4: in May 2021 the US had sequenced 0.5–1% of COVID-19 cases, though sequencing was growing. The rapid tests in E1 and E3 are not genomic tests, and nothing here shows genomics becoming an everyday technology outside specialist labs. That matches the 'mixed' outcome in the criteria.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics.” (said 13 March 2020). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_109a8b464572, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_109a8b464572

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Balaji Srinivasan, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan

  1. Mostly true Prediction 29 March 2020
    “Just like the first bailout greased the skids, this won’t be the last lockdown.”

    The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown.

  2. Mixed Prediction 13 March 2020
    “I think we're going to see the Great Firewall of China, where they'll be sequencing and testing the heck out of everybody, scanning the country constantly to see, OK, is a virus rising and then…”

    Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 13 March 2020
    “But it may turn out that we tested very, very large number of people because there may be more spreaders than we think.”

    A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 13 March 2020
    “Now that's going to go to real time, meaning within a day or an hour before you get on the flight.”

    Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 13 March 2020
    “Within a few weeks, the folks who have severe conditions may have long term impact that we're not aware of because it's so new that we don't know what that long term impact is.”

    People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.