The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown.

Horizon: end-2022. The claim is that the spring-2020 COVID lockdowns would be followed by further lockdowns. TRUE: after the first lockdowns were lifted or eased, governments in the jurisdictions in question (the US, or major countries generally) imposed further lockdowns or stay-at-home orders, as shown by official orders or the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. MOSTLY TRUE: further lockdowns happened, but were limited to regional or partial measures in the US while full national lockdowns recurred elsewhere. MOSTLY FALSE: only minor restrictions followed, such as mask mandates or capacity limits, with no real lockdowns. FALSE: no further lockdowns were imposed anywhere relevant after the first round ended.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 A look back at how the coronavirus pandemic impacted pubs The Morning Advertiser · 1 March 2022

   “Pubs were once again ordered to shut their doors as the second national lockdown came into force.”

2. E2 A look back at how the coronavirus pandemic impacted pubs The Morning Advertiser · 1 March 2022

   “The third national lockdown was announced with restrictions similar to lockdown one were imposed.”

3. E3 California reissues lock down orders before Thanksgiving holiday Ark Republic · 23 November 2020

   “The state of California has been in a limited stay-at-home order since Saturday.”

4. E4 COVID-19 Government Response Tracker Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford · 29 June 2023

   “For almost all jurisdictions, the OxCGRT data runs from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2022.”

Further lockdowns followed the spring-2020 round. The Morning Advertiser reports a second national lockdown and then a third, with restrictions similar to the first (E1, E2). In the US, the evidence shows only regional or partial measures, such as California's 'limited stay-at-home order' in November 2020 (E3). This matches the criteria's MOSTLY TRUE case: full national lockdowns recurred elsewhere while US measures stayed regional or partial. The UK evidence could also be read as meeting the TRUE case for 'major countries generally', but the criteria describe this exact pattern as MOSTLY TRUE.