ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“Also, China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of oil.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder January 2016 1Q 2016 GMO Quarterly Letter: Keeping the Faith (GMO via investmentofficer.nl)

Factual Economics and markets

China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of global oil.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Use data from around 2014–2015. Compare China's share of world consumption of major minerals and metals (such as iron ore, copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, coal and cement inputs) with its share of world oil consumption. True: China's shares for most major minerals are much larger than its oil share, for example about double or more. Mostly true: they are larger for most minerals, but by less than double for some. Mixed: they are larger for about half of the major minerals. Mostly false: they are larger for only a few minerals. False: China's mineral shares are generally similar to or below its oil share.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 [PDF] 103024 - World Bank Documents World Bank (Development Prospects Group, Commodity Markets Outlook / Global Economic Monitor, September 2015) · September 2015

    “As a result, China’s share of world metals consumption more than tripled from 13 percent in 2000 to 47 percent in 2014 (Figure 3A).”
  2. E2 [PDF] 103024 - World Bank Documents World Bank (Development Prospects Group, Commodity Markets Outlook / Global Economic Monitor, September 2015) · September 2015

    “Although China’s share in global oil consumption has more than doubled since 2000 (from 4.8 to 11.1 mb/d), it remains a modest 12 percent while India’s share amounts to 4 percent.”
  3. E3 China is still king of commodity consumption | World Economic Forum World Economic Forum · 2 September 2015

    “China alone consumes “roughly an eighth of the world’s oil, a quarter of its gold, almost a third of its cotton and up to half of all the major base metals”.”
  4. E4 Commodity price crash not wholly China’s fault Channel NewsAsia (Project Syndicate op-ed by Abdul Abiad and Shang-Jin Wei of the Asian Development Bank) · 22 March 2016

    “it accounts for about half of the global consumption of metals, coal and pork, for example”

Reasoning

The World Bank's September 2015 report puts China's share of world metals consumption at 47 percent in 2014 (E1) and its share of world oil consumption at 12 percent (E2). That makes the metals share roughly four times the oil share. The World Economic Forum describes China as consuming about an eighth of the world's oil but up to half of the major base metals (E3). Asian Development Bank economists say China accounts for about half of global metals and coal consumption (E4). None of these sources breaks the figure down mineral by mineral, but the aggregate shares across several independent sources are well above double the oil share.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of global oil.” (said January 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_26643d622182, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_26643d622182

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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