ClaimsWarren Buffett

“my best speculation is that US debt will be acceptable for a very long time because there’s not much alternative.”

Warren Buffett, answering shareholders 5 May 2024 Transcript: Berkshire's 2024 annual shareholder meeting (Steady Compounding) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

'Very long time' has no defined horizon, so it can't be tested.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative.” (said 5 May 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_25ed04c38e8c, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_25ed04c38e8c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “we will get out of it.”

    The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one.”

    Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2007
    “Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide.”

    Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.”

    HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.