ClaimsScott Alexander

“Maybe a real scenario is 33% decrease in crime rate per 600 years?”

Scott Alexander, blog author 10 December 2024 Highlights From The Comments On Prison (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Prediction Philosophy, ethics and society

Scott Alexander tentatively suggested that a realistic version of the scenario might mean roughly a 33% decrease in the crime rate per 600 years.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

A hypothetical modelled scenario with no real-world test or horizon.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander tentatively suggested that a realistic version of the scenario might mean roughly a 33% decrease in the crime rate per 600 years.” (said 10 December 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_239f07827535, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_239f07827535

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 February 2018
    “The culture wars will continue to be marked by both sides scoring an unrelenting series of own-goals, with the victory going to whoever can make their supporters shut up first.”

    The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up.

  2. Mixed Prediction 2018
    “Religion will continue to retreat from US public life.”

    Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.