ClaimsWarren Buffett

“we know it's going to come back”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire CEO 15 December 2020 CNBC Transcript: Buffett and David Solomon (Dec 2020) (CNBC) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Business at restaurants, gyms and similar venues hit by pandemic fears will come back.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The claim gives no exact date. It is judged at 2023-12-31, about three years after it was made. 'Come back' means that US demand for restaurants, gyms and similar venues hurt by pandemic fears returns to roughly pre-pandemic (2019) levels. True: by the horizon, industry data show that restaurant sales or traffic and gym attendance or membership are at or near (within about 10%) their 2019 levels, after adjusting for inflation where the data allow. Mostly true: the recovery is broad, but one named sector (for example, gyms) is still somewhat below 2019 levels, by more than 10% but no more than 20%. Mixed: one of the named sectors has recovered and the other has clearly not. Mostly false: there is only a partial recovery, with the sectors still well below 2019 levels (more than 20% short). False: activity in these sectors stays depressed, or falls further, compared with late 2020.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 Restaurant Industry Workforce Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels QSR Magazine · 6 October 2023

    “Recent data from Revenue Management Solutions showed quick-service traffic in particular was down 18.4 percent when measuring June 2023 to June 2019.”

  2. E2 Restaurant Industry Workforce Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels QSR Magazine · 6 October 2023

    “Across 2023, dine-in traffic slid an average of 47 percent. It closed Q2 at negative 43.6 percent versus 2019.”

  3. E3 Restaurant Industry Workforce Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels QSR Magazine · 6 October 2023

    “But adjusted for inflation, sales for restaurants were essentially flat.”

  4. E4 Restaurant Industry Workforce Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels QSR Magazine · 6 October 2023

    “pushing it nearly 30,000 spots above February 2020’s peak.”

  5. E5 Food Services and Drinking Places 1 - U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Census Bureau · 24 October 2026

    “2019 59180 59521 59966 60375 60963 61763 62382 62517 63008 63294 63287 64249”

  6. E6 Food Services and Drinking Places 1 - U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Census Bureau · 24 October 2026

    “2023 81068 78417 78269 78022 78552 78979 79404 79322 79889 79946 80776 81113”

  7. E7 Food Services and Drinking Places 1 - U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Census Bureau · 24 October 2026

    “2020 65252 65192 45810 29776 38993 50002 52140 54417 55854 55630 53255 50277”

Reasoning

The restaurant evidence uses different measures: nominal Census sales (E5, E6), inflation-adjusted sales (E3) and quick-service and dine-in traffic (E1, E2). Census monthly values for food services and drinking places were about 78,000–81,000 in 2023 against about 59,000–64,000 in 2019, but these are nominal figures (E5, E6). QSR Magazine reports quick-service traffic down 18.4% in June 2023 versus June 2019 and dine-in traffic down 43.6% at the end of Q2 versus 2019 (E1, E2); it also says inflation-adjusted restaurant sales were "essentially flat" but does not say against what period (E3). None of the evidence covers gym attendance or membership, which the criteria require to choose between true, mostly true and mixed, so the claim can't be settled.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Business at restaurants, gyms and similar venues hit by pandemic fears will come back.” (said 15 December 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_21109f35dbf8, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_21109f35dbf8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “we will get out of it.”

    The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one.”

    Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2007
    “Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide.”

    Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.”

    HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.