Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles.

'Soon' is taken to mean within about six months of 20 Jul 2016, so by about 20 Jan 2017. TRUE: Tesla data show that cumulative Autopilot miles passed 178 million by that date. MOSTLY TRUE: the figure passed 178 million by that date, but the reported number is given only approximately. MOSTLY FALSE: it passed 178 million only after that date, or reached only part of the figure (for example 150–178 million) by that date. FALSE: dated Tesla figures show cumulative Autopilot miles well below 178 million (under 150 million) by that date.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Tesla fatal crash rate with Autopilot could still be no better than with human drivers Green Car Reports · 16 November 2018

   “On October 7, Elon Musk tweeted “Cumulative Tesla Autopilot miles now at 222 million miles.””

2. E2 Tesla's global fleet reaches 3.5 billion electric miles - added 500 million in less than 3 months Electrek · 26 December 2016

   “In November, Tesla had accumulated over 1.3 billion miles for Autopilot data.”

3. E3 Tesla reveals new details of its Autopilot program: 780M miles of data, 100M miles driven and more Electrek · 24 May 2016

   “While Tesla owners have driven around 100 million miles on Autopilot, Anderson reveals that the fleet Autopilot hardware-equipped cars has collectively driven 780 million miles.”

4. E4 Tesla Autopilot - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 13 November 2016

   “Tesla has now 1.3 billion miles of Autopilot data going into its new self-driving program”

5. E5 Tesla's own numbers show Autopilot has higher crash rate than human drivers Green Car Reports · 10 November 2016

   “On October 7, Elon Musk tweeted “Cumulative Tesla Autopilot miles now at 222 million.””

6. E6 How safe is Tesla Autopilot? A look at the statistics. The Christian Science Monitor · 14 October 2016

   “Last week, by the way, Musk tweeted “Autopilot miles now at 222 million.””

7. E7 Tesla's second generation Autopilot could reduce crash rate by 90%, says CEO Elon Musk Electrek · 20 January 2017

   “Tesla accumulated about 1.3 billion miles of data using those sensors and that certainly helped improve the system and achieve the 40% crash rate drop.”

Two independent outlets writing in October–November 2016 (E5, E6) report that Musk tweeted in early October 2016 that cumulative Tesla Autopilot miles were at 222 million, and a later 2018 article (E1) quotes the same October 7 tweet. That is well above the 178 million threshold, and it came about three months after the July 20, 2016 claim, inside the roughly six-month window. The figure is consistent with the approximately 100 million Autopilot miles Tesla reported in May 2016 (E3). The 1.3 billion figures (E2, E4, E7) count fleet data miles, not miles driven with Autopilot on, so they do not bear on this claim. One caveat: the 222 million figure is Tesla's own number, reported by independent outlets rather than separately verified, but the resolution criteria call for Tesla data.