If 2023 has no major supply chain interruption, Tesla has the potential to produce 2 million cars in 2023.

This is a strongly hedged, conditional claim: in a smooth 2023 with no major supply chain disruption, Tesla could produce about 2 million cars. TRUE: Tesla's 2023 production was about 1.95M or more. MOSTLY TRUE: production was about 1.85–1.95M. MIXED: production fell short of that and there was a major supply chain interruption or similar problem in 2023, so the condition was not met. MOSTLY FALSE: 2023 had no such disruption and production was about 1.7–1.85M. FALSE: 2023 had no such disruption and production was below about 1.7M.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 2023 Tesla Investor Relations (ir.tesla.com; via Business Wire) · 2 January 2024 Own record

   “In 2023, vehicle deliveries grew 38% YoY to 1.81 million while production grew 35% YoY to 1.85 million.”

2. E2 Tesla reports record earnings but tighter profit margins | CNN Business CNN · 25 January 2023

   “Musk said Tesla would have capacity to make about 2 million cars this year, if everything goes smoothly. But he said he can’t count on that, especially after disruptions in recent years.”

3. E3 Tesla reports record earnings but tighter profit margins | CNN Business CNN · 25 January 2023

   “Tesla set a sales target 1.8 million vehicles for this year, up 37% from 2022 sales of 1.3 million vehicles.”

Tesla's official Q4 2023 production and deliveries release reports that 2023 vehicle production was 1.85 million (E1). That sits at the lower edge of the criteria's "about 1.85–1.95M" mostly-true band, which doesn't depend on whether 2023 was a smooth year. CNN's coverage confirms the 2 million figure was a capacity estimate conditional on smooth conditions (E3), alongside a 1.8 million sales target (E4). The production figure comes only from Tesla's own official record.