Tesla thinks demand for its vehicles will be good despite a probable contraction in the overall automotive market.

The core claim is that demand for Tesla vehicles would be good in 2023. The overall market contraction is hedged ('probably') and is secondary. TRUE: Tesla's 2023 deliveries grew substantially year over year (about 1.8M, as guided, or more) and kept pace with production, without significant inventory building up. MOSTLY TRUE: deliveries grew strongly but there was a moderate build-up of inventory. MIXED: deliveries grew but fell short of production by a significant amount, or Tesla itself described demand as weak during the year. MOSTLY FALSE: deliveries were roughly flat, or demand was widely described as weak with inventory piling up. FALSE: Tesla deliveries fell year over year in 2023.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 2023 Tesla, Inc. (Investor Relations, via Business Wire) · 2 January 2024 Own record

   “In 2023, vehicle deliveries grew 38% YoY to 1.81 million while production grew 35% YoY to 1.85 million.”

2. E2 Tesla’s Swelling Inventory Suggests Continued Price Cuts - TT TTNews (Transport Topics) · 3 May 2023

   “Tesla is clearly transitioning from being supply constrained (where delivery volumes grow in line with production capacity and prices increase) to being demand constrained (where prices fall to stimulate demand and production outpaces delivery),”

3. E3 Tesla’s Swelling Inventory Suggests Continued Price Cuts - TT TTNews (Transport Topics) · 3 May 2023

   “Blogs that aggregate vehicle listings on Tesla’s website are finding that inventory has kept building — in the U.S., Europe and globally.”

4. E4 SEC.gov | HOME Tesla, Inc. (Q4 and FY 2023 Update, Exhibit 99.1 filed with the SEC) Own record

   “Global vehicle inventory (days of supply)(1) 13 15 6 16 16 0%”

Tesla's official delivery release (E1) reports that 2023 deliveries grew 38% year over year to 1.81 million, which meets the roughly 1.8M guidance. Production was 1.85 million, so about 40,000 more vehicles were built than delivered, a modest gap of about 2%. Independent reporting from May 2023 (E2, E3) describes Tesla inventory building in the U.S., Europe and globally, and an analyst there says Tesla was becoming demand-constrained, with price cuts used to stimulate demand. The May 2023 reporting points to some inventory build-up during the year, and Tesla's 2023 production (1.85 million) slightly exceeded deliveries (1.81 million) [E1], although Tesla's own figures show a 0% year-over-year change in global inventory days of supply [E4]; on balance this fits mostly true under the criteria.