The U.S. economy is currently in its worst 10% of historical conditions, perhaps even the worst 1%.

Factual claim from 2020 (during the COVID shock) that the US economy was in its worst 10% of historical conditions, with a hedged 'perhaps worst 1%'. The core test is the worst-10% claim; the worst-1% part is hedged and not required. Judge it against standard indicators at the time the claim was made (real GDP growth, unemployment rate, industrial output), compared with the historical record (since about 1929, or postwar quarterly/monthly data). True: the main indicators then stood in the worst 10% of historical readings. Mostly true: most main indicators were in the worst 10%, with one borderline. Mixed: some key indicators were in the worst decile and others were not. Mostly false: only a single indicator, or a briefly extreme reading, was in the worst decile, while overall conditions were not. False: the indicators were not near the bottom decile of the historical record.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 15 May 2020

   “Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led many factories to slow or suspend operations throughout the month.”

2. E2 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 15 May 2020

   “Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 8.3 percentage points to 64.9 percent in April, a rate that is 14.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average and 1.8 percentage points below its all-time (since 1967) low set in 2009.”

3. E3 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 15 May 2020

   “Manufacturing output dropped 13.7 percent, its largest decline on record, as all major industries posted decreases.”

The Federal Reserve's G.17 release for April 2020 reports that total industrial production fell 11.2% in April, its largest monthly drop in the index's 101-year history (E1). Manufacturing output had its largest decline on record (E3), and capacity utilization fell to 64.9%, below its all-time low since 1967 (E2). These readings put industrial output in the extreme bottom of the historical record, well within the worst 10%. The evidence does not cover GDP or unemployment and does not give the exact date of the claim within 2020, so only the industrial indicators are directly confirmed.