The US debt-to-GDP ratio in 2022 is higher than after the Great Depression and World War II.

Compare the US debt-to-GDP ratio in 2022 with its levels after the Great Depression (late 1930s) and after World War II (peak around 1946). Use the debt measure Roubini's context indicates; if the context is unclear, use gross federal debt and total US (public plus private) debt. True: on the measure he meant, 2022 is higher than both historical benchmarks. Mostly true: 2022 exceeds both benchmarks on the relevant measure, but not on another common measure such as federal debt held by the public, or only by a trivial margin. Mixed: 2022 exceeds one benchmark but not the other. Mostly false: 2022 exceeds the benchmarks only on an unusual or narrow measure, while standard measures show it below. False: 2022 is below both benchmarks on all standard measures.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Nouriel Roubini - Megathreats-Little, Brown and Company (2022) Little, Brown and Company (book text hosted on Scribd) · October 2022 Own record

   “Current US private and public debt-to-GDP ratio is much higher than the peak debt during the Great Depression, and more than twice the level when the United States emerged from World War II and entered a period of robust growth.”

2. E2 Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt? International Monetary Fund (IMF Working Paper WP/24/5) · January 2024

   “As of the end of fiscal year 2022, the actual debt/GDP ratio has risen to 97%, close to its peak of 106% in 1946.”

3. E3 The Long-Run Fiscal Outlook in the United States Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letter · 12 February 2024

   “The current debt-to-GDP ratio, as of fiscal year 2023, was just below 100% of GDP, very close to where it was at the end of WWII.”

4. E4 Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt? International Monetary Fund (IMF Working Paper WP/24/5, Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball) · January 2024

   “As of the end of fiscal year 2022, the actual debt/GDP ratio has risen to 97%, close to its peak of 106% in 1946.”

5. E5 Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt? International Monetary Fund (IMF Working Paper WP/24/5, Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball) · January 2024

   “Since the trough in 1974, the debt/GDP ratio has risen in most years and it reached 102% in 2022.”

6. E6 Nouriel Roubini - Megathreats-Little, Brown and Company (2022) Scribd (copy of Nouriel Roubini, Megathreats, Little, Brown and Company) · October 2022 Own record

   “Current US private and public debt-to-GDP ratio is much higher than the peak debt during the Great Depression, and more than twice the level when the United States emerged from World War II and entered a period of robust growth.”

7. E7 Table Data - Gross Federal Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget · 1 January 1995

   “| DATE | VALUE | |---|---| | 1939-01-01 | 51.58556 | | 1940-01-01 | 49.27162 | | 1941-01-01 | 44.46713 | | 1942-01-01 | 47.72464 | | 1943-01-01 | 70.21725 | | 1944-01-01 | 90.93461 | | 1945-01-01 | 114.07545 | | 1946-01-01 | 119.10256 |”

8. E8 BUDGET-2024-PER-5-6.pdf Office of Management and Budget, Analytical Perspectives (via GovInfo)

   “Federal debt peaked at 106.1 percent of GDP in 1946, just after the end of the war.”

9. E9 Why History Shows the U.S. Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt Peter G. Peterson Foundation

   “Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.”

Roubini's book makes the comparison on total US private plus public debt to GDP, and says it is far above both benchmarks (E1, E6). That is only his own statement, and no independent source in the evidence gives total-debt figures for 2022, the 1930s or 1946. The independent sources cover federal debt only. On debt held by the public, 2022 was 97% against a 1946 peak of 106.1% (E2, E4, E9, E10), so it was below the post-war benchmark. E7 lists 1939–1946 gross federal debt figures but no 2022 value, so the comparison on that measure can't be made either. The measure that matters can't be checked against independent data, so the claim is unresolvable.