ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“Thus, more than 99% of the analysts and portfolio managers of the great, and the not so great, investment houses believed that there would indeed be “a major bear market””

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author April 2012 My Sister's Pension Assets and Agency Problems (GMO)

Factual Economics and markets

In his 1998-1999 survey, over 99% of about 1100 analysts and portfolio managers believed there would be a major bear market, with only 7 voting that the P/E would not go back to 17.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Vote counts of his private survey are not independently recorded.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “In his 1998-1999 survey, over 99% of about 1100 analysts and portfolio managers believed there would be a major bear market, with only 7 voting that the P/E would not go back to 17.” (said April 2012). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_098d95232e1a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_098d95232e1a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Jeremy Grantham

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    “the lowest rates in the history of man,”

    Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.

  2. Mostly true Factual 28 July 2025
    “31 years later, the land is not back, and stocks are not back.”

    Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels.

  3. Mostly true Factual 28 July 2025
    “one of the two or three lowest relative points in history”

    Emerging markets and value stocks trade at one of the two or three lowest relative valuation points in history compared to the U.S.

  4. Mostly true Factual 5 July 2023
    “Now we have, since ChatGPT and October and November last year, we have a new little flurry of interest that is very concentrated.”

    Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated.

  5. Mixed Factual January 2023
    “in 1974 the market did turn up, after a horrific 62% real decline in two years, exactly”

    In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place.

All of them

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