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Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

3 claims

3 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mixed Factual 15 Dec 2020 Big businesses have generally done very well, with travel and entertainment mentioned in a way the quote leaves unclear, though they still have difficulties. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire tried to time its sales of Dow Chemical stock once it rose above the conversion price, selling more aggressively as the price rose, because it did not want to own the roughly 72 million common shares. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett previously assured shareholders that General Re was underwriting with discipline, and that assurance proved wrong. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
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Warren Buffett

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Factual Economics and markets

“big businesses, generally have done very well about travel and entertainment”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire CEO 15 December 2020 CNBC Transcript: Buffett and David Solomon (Dec 2020) (CNBC)

Big businesses have generally done very well, with travel and entertainment mentioned in a way the quote leaves unclear, though they still have difficulties.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2020-12-15. The claim is vague and about degree. True: evidence such as S&P 500 or large-cap earnings, revenue and stock performance for 2020 shows large businesses overall had done very well during the pandemic, while travel and entertainment firms were a notable exception with continuing difficulties. Mostly true: large businesses had broadly done well, with some qualifications on 'very well', and travel and entertainment were struggling. Mixed: performance of large businesses was roughly split, or 'very well' is clearly overstated though they did OK. Mostly false: most large businesses had done poorly, with only a narrow subset (e.g., big tech) doing very well, stated as general. False: large businesses generally did badly in 2020.

Evidence

  1. Driven by big tech's pandemic gains, S&P 500's 2020 surge masks uneven recovery S&P Global Market Intelligence · 4 January 2021
    “The S&P 500 rose 18.4% on a total-return basis in 2020, but the rally was not felt in every sector. Outside the top 30 stocks by market cap, the index was flat in 2020.”
  2. S&P 500 posted 2020 gains as COVID-19, oil price crash obliterated energy sector S&P Global Market Intelligence · 7 January 2021
    “The benchmark's Energy Sector index value plummeted 37.3% while outperformers such as the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology indexes rose 32.1% and 42.2%, respectively.”

Reasoning

E1 reports that the S&P 500 returned 18.4% in 2020, but outside the 30 largest stocks by market cap the index was flat. That fits large businesses doing OK overall while "very well" applies mainly to a small group at the top. E2 shows wide differences between sectors: Energy fell 37.3%, while Consumer Discretionary rose 32.1% and Information Technology rose 42.2%. Neither source covers travel and entertainment firms or earnings, and both measure stock performance only. So the evidence supports a mixed verdict: the general claim is overstated, not false.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Big businesses have generally done very well, with travel and entertainment mentioned in a way the quote leaves unclear, though they still have difficulties.” (said 15 December 2020). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_0702d67c99b8, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0702d67c99b8

Claims without a verdict

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