ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

97 claims

97 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 10 Nov 2025 Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century. Prediction · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 A truly staggering insurance loss will occur someday, and there is no guarantee there will be only one per year. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Buffett said he expects that Greg and his eventual successors will hold Berkshire's Japanese position for many decades, and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five companies in the future. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Over time Berkshire's ownership stake in all five Japanese companies will likely increase somewhat. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2025 Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Berkshire's insurance float is likely to grow a bit over time and, with intelligent underwriting and some luck, has a reasonable prospect of being costless. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 The donor's scholarship program may end up supporting 150 students. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett said he thought that, with present US fiscal policies, something has to give and higher taxes are quite likely. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Utah is very likely to treat Berkshire Hathaway Energy fairly on utility rates or compensation if it moves to public power. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 If anything happened to Buffett, Berkshire would be working extremely well the next day. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 The next major financial crisis will occur within a century, though timing is unknown. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 Over the next century no company will be dramatically better than others in returns. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 With a million dollars, an investor who studies small companies could earn 50% a year. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett said he did not think "we" would end up with a better system, speaking in the context of Berkshire's real estate brokerage business. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett, who said he does not really know anything about AI, said it will affect anything labor-intensive and can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Prediction · 5 May 2024 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Solar will never be the only source of electricity, barring real breakthroughs in storage. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 Berkshire's CEO succession is settled for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 If anything happened to Buffett, Berkshire would work extremely well the next day. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 The electric utility industry will never be nearly as good a business as the other kinds of businesses Berkshire owns. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 4 May 2024 The business he described will still be around 100 years from now. It will not be the best growth business in the world in that period, but it will be essential. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said that Greg will do something about a problem he described, which he said he and Charlie would not have acted on, not because they did not know it should be done but because they were doing so well themselves. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said he thought that if Utah moved to public power, it would compensate Berkshire fairly. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Saying that he does not really know anything about AI, Buffett suggested that AI will affect anything that is labor-intensive and that it can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Prediction · 4 May 2024 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett says Berkshire's CEO succession problem is solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 4 May 2024 Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett says it may end up being 150 people who are able to pursue different lives. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Utah is very likely to treat Berkshire's utility business fairly, including on granting appropriate rates. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US government debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 No company will be dramatically better than others in returns over the next century. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Given present US fiscal policies, higher taxes are quite likely in the future. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Someone will invest hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions, of dollars in electric power, via public power or private enterprise. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Solar will never be the only source of electricity, barring real breakthroughs in energy storage. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Dec 2020 Buffett said Carla Walker-Miller needs help and will make the most of it, and guaranteed that she will be a success and will employ lots more people in future than she does now. Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Dec 2020 Business at restaurants, gyms and similar venues hit by pandemic fears will come back. Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Dec 2020 there will be fraud connected with it Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thought the US economy would be better off four years from February 2017, even though he disagreed with some specific policies. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The Dow will certainly approach 100,000 within the lifetime of the person addressed, requiring only that the American system keeps functioning much as it has. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are very high that any US administration ends up with the economy better four years later than at present. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that there would be another deal involving Kraft Heinz at some point, and said he did not know when. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett predicts that over any extended period, the equity-type investment category he favours will be by far the safest of the three major investment categories. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he was confident that, over the century, the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he believes that over any extended period, investing in businesses, whether owned in their entirety or through sizable holdings of marketable stocks, will prove to be the runaway winner among the three investment categories he examined. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 The destruction of investors' purchasing power by these instruments will forever recur. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 People like the 23 people who were given a diploma that day, and big business, will take "us" out of "this", the situation the surrounding remarks discuss. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The United States will go forward over time. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US will get out of its sour sentiment toward Washington, though he is unsure how. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Large future gains in Berkshire's non-insurance earnings will come only if it makes major, sensible acquisitions. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett's 2007 federal and state income taxes will be exactly what they would have been had he not made his 2007 charitable contributions. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire is likely to continue earning significant overall profits from mispriced derivatives despite occasional losses. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 As U.S. trade problems worsen, the dollar is highly likely to weaken over time. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire's business performance will determine its stock price, and most of the time the stock will sell in a zone of reasonableness. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire's insurance operations will periodically have bad years. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Executive compensation reform will occur only if the largest institutional shareholders demand a fresh look at the whole system. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett's thinking about the disposition of his Berkshire shares is very unlikely to change in a material way. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 The math of the 2-and-20 fee arrangement is certain to make investors poorer over time than they would have been without it. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters would find the annual "tribute" paid abroad so onerous that there would be a severe political backlash. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Under competitive conditions likely for a few years, NetJets' scale advantage will at best produce modest profits. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Trailer leasing is cyclical, but Berkshire should earn decent returns in it over time. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Own records only Prediction 28 Feb 2002 The few fixed-income strategies involving highly-liquid AAA securities that Buffett manages have reasonable prospects of continuing to produce good returns over the next year or two. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Over time, Berkshire's insuring of jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically it will bring a terrible year. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger believe American business will do fine over time, but think equity prices as of early 2002 point to only moderate returns for investors. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 In a close-to-worst-case terrorism scenario involving about $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it dramatically limits its terrorism risk assumption. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's holdings, about 10% of Fruit of the Loom's senior debt, will probably return about 70% of face value. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ignoring terrorism exposure in insurance pricing could bankrupt the insurance industry. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett predicted that Joe and Tad would make General Re a huge asset for Berkshire. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger predict MiTek will be a winner for all involved. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 If Berkshire stays active in junk bonds, it will have losses from time to time. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects to see opportunities for complementary acquisitions in the future. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Over time GEICO will inevitably increase its market share significantly while achieving excellent profits, thanks to its low-cost advantage. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire's negotiated acquisitions of entire businesses will at best provide only reasonable returns. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Most of Berkshire's stock holdings are fully priced and are unlikely to deliver more than moderate returns in the future. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Absent a mega-catastrophe, Berkshire expected its float cost to fall in 2001, perhaps substantially, in large part because of pricing corrections at General Re. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next 20 years. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett stated an expectation that, at GEICO, float would over time be free (no cost). Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 The matter referred to on page 65 of the report will have no effect on Berkshire's intrinsic value. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Economics and markets
Own records only Prediction 28 Feb 2001 CORT looks like a good bet to beat Berkshire's original expectations for the business. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
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Warren Buffett

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Prediction Their own work or organisation

“With a little luck, Berkshire should require only five or six CEOs over the next century.”

Warren Buffett, chairman, in Berkshire news release 10 November 2025 Berkshire news release Nov 10, 2025 (Thanksgiving letter) (Berkshire Hathaway)

Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

deadline 2125 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century.” (said 10 November 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_cab047e2b43f, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cab047e2b43f

Claims without a verdict

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