ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

14 claims

14 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 10 Nov 2025 Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century. Prediction · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2025 Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 The next major financial crisis will occur within a century, though timing is unknown. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 Over the next century no company will be dramatically better than others in returns. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 Berkshire's CEO succession is settled for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 4 May 2024 The business he described will still be around 100 years from now. It will not be the best growth business in the world in that period, but it will be essential. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett says Berkshire's CEO succession problem is solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he was confident that, over the century, the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Promise 2010 Warren Buffett will continue to distribute about 4% of the Berkshire shares he retains each year. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 None of Warren Buffett's pledged money will go to endowments; it will be spent on current needs. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 More than 99% of Warren Buffett's wealth will go to philanthropy during his lifetime or at death. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 At the latest, proceeds from all of Warren Buffett's Berkshire shares will be spent for philanthropic purposes within 10 years after his estate is settled. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
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Warren Buffett

Open its page

Prediction Their own work or organisation

“At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman and CEO 2025 Berkshire Hathaway 2024 Annual Report (Berkshire Hathaway)

Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: (a) Greg Abel replaces Buffett as Berkshire Hathaway CEO 'before long', and (b) Abel then writes the annual shareholder letters. The claim gives no exact date, so 'won't be long' is taken to mean by 2027-03-31, which is about two years from the 2025 letter and leaves time for the first letter after the handover. True: Abel formally becomes CEO by that date, shown by a Berkshire announcement or filing, and a Berkshire annual shareholder letter written and signed by Abel as CEO is published by that date. Mostly true: Abel becomes CEO by the horizon and is clearly set to write the letters (for example, Berkshire officially names him as the author of the next letter), but the first Abel letter has not yet come out only because of when letters are normally published. Mixed: Abel becomes CEO by the horizon, but Buffett keeps writing the annual letters, or it is officially stated that Abel will not write them. Mostly false: Abel is officially confirmed and scheduled to take over but has not become CEO by the horizon, or he becomes CEO only after it. False: by the horizon someone other than Abel becomes CEO, Abel's designation as successor is withdrawn, or Buffett is documented as still CEO with no transition date set.

Evidence

  1. BRK-A 2026 Proxy Statement Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 10 August 2026 Own record
    “As previously announced, Gregory E. Abel succeeded Warren Buffett as Berkshire’s Chief Executive Officer on January 1, 2026. Mr. Buffett continues to be the Chairman of the Board of Directors.”
  2. BRK-A 2026 Proxy Statement Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 10 August 2026 Own record
    “As previously discussed, Mr. Abel became Berkshire’s CEO beginning on January 1, 2026.”
  3. BRK-A 2026 Proxy Statement Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 10 August 2026 Own record
    “Berkshire’s annual report, including the CEO’s annual letter to shareholders, as well as its periodic reports filed with the SEC are posted to Berkshire’s web site at www.berkshirehathaway.com.”

Reasoning

Moved to not yet due on 2026-11-03: its criteria judge it at 31 Mar 2027 and need a shareholder letter written by Greg Abel, which the evidence did not show yet. The judges' reading of the evidence at the time, which gave mostly true: Berkshire's 2026 proxy statement says Greg Abel succeeded Buffett as CEO on January 1, 2026, well before the 2027-03-31 horizon, and Buffett remains Chairman (E1, E2). The same proxy calls the shareholder letter in the annual report "the CEO's annual letter" (E3), which points to the CEO, now Abel, as its author. However, none of the evidence names Abel as the author of a published letter, so the second part of the claim is supported only indirectly.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters.” (said 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_b3ef7bb00a43, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b3ef7bb00a43

Claims without a verdict

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