ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

281 claims · page 3 of 3

281 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Promise 2007 Berkshire will again hold a reception at 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon of the 2007 annual meeting weekend for shareholders who have come from outside North America. Promise · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's Nebraska Furniture Mart will keep its new Kansas City-area store open on Sundays. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will play all comers blindfolded in the mall at Berkshire's 2002 annual meeting weekend. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2002 Historically Berkshire has obtained its insurance float at very low cost, with a cost below zero in about half the years it has operated. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Under competitive conditions likely for a few years, NetJets' scale advantage will at best produce modest profits. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire lost $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the September 11th event without having been paid properly for the risk assumed. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett made three decisions about Dexter that hurt Berkshire shareholders: buying it, paying for it with stock, and procrastinating on operational changes. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's purchases of Fruit of the Loom debt indirectly reduced its purchase price for the whole company by a small amount. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Since Ajit Jain joined Berkshire in 1986, Buffett has known the details of almost every policy he wrote and never saw him break any of Berkshire's three underwriting rules. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Trailer leasing is cyclical, but Berkshire should earn decent returns in it over time. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 For at least the next year, the Civic Auditorium in downtown Omaha is the only site available for Berkshire's annual meeting. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 28 Feb 2002 The few fixed-income strategies involving highly-liquid AAA securities that Buffett manages have reasonable prospects of continuing to produce good returns over the next year or two. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Over time, Berkshire's insuring of jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically it will bring a terrible year. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the 2001 Berkshire meeting, Patrick Wolff played as many as six blindfolded chess games simultaneously. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the parent company level, Berkshire makes no charitable contributions except those designated by shareholders. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett previously assured shareholders that General Re was underwriting with discipline, and that assurance proved wrong. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger believe American business will do fine over time, but think equity prices as of early 2002 point to only moderate returns for investors. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 In a close-to-worst-case terrorism scenario involving about $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it dramatically limits its terrorism risk assumption. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 28 Feb 2002 For some years Berkshire has been willing to assume more risk than any other insurer has knowingly taken on. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's holdings, about 10% of Fruit of the Loom's senior debt, will probably return about 70% of face value. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 Bob and Petra Hamman and Sharon Osberg are expected to host bridge tables in the mall outside Borsheim's at Berkshire's 2002 annual meeting weekend. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's per-share intrinsic value grew somewhat faster than book value over 37 years, and in 2001 it probably decreased less than book value. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 28 Feb 2002 NetJets has more than 300 planes constantly operating in the U.S. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 The new R.C. Willey store in Henderson, Nevada outsells all other stores in the chain, with volume far above any competitor's and twice what Buffett anticipated. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ignoring terrorism exposure in insurance pricing could bankrupt the insurance industry. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett said the year he was reporting on was Berkshire's worst year in float cost since 1984, a result that he said Berkshire to a significant degree brought upon itself. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's headquarters added one employee in 2001 and now has 14.8 employees. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2002 Buffett will keep well over 99% of his net worth in Berkshire. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 Bill Robertie, one of only two two-time backgammon world champions, will be at the Berkshire 2002 annual meeting mall to play shareholders. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire will give people who order annual meeting tickets a booklet with information for enjoying their visit to Omaha. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's roughly 50-year experience investing in distressed debt has so far been rewarding. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 In 2002 the Omaha Royals will play the Oklahoma RedHawks at the Berkshire shareholder baseball game. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett predicted that Joe and Tad would make General Re a huge asset for Berkshire. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 28 Feb 2002 All of Berkshire's 2001 acquisitions were paid for in cash, so shareholders did not give up any interest in existing companies. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Borsheim's operates on a gross margin fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire will have top bridge experts available to play with shareholders in the mall outside Borsheim's on the Sunday afternoon of the 2002 annual meeting. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Promise 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger will not take cash compensation, restricted stock or option grants that would make their results superior to shareholders'. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 The usual Berkshire shareholder baseball game will be held at Rosenblatt Stadium at 7 p.m. on the Saturday night of the 2002 meeting weekend. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Guidance 28 Feb 2002 FlightSafety expects to spend $162 million on 27 simulators in 2002, versus annual depreciation of $95 million. Guidance · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett concluded that Dexter could keep coping with low-cost foreign competition, and that conclusion was wrong. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger predict MiTek will be a winner for all involved. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire has never purchased a newly-issued junk bond. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 If Berkshire stays active in junk bonds, it will have losses from time to time. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects to see opportunities for complementary acquisitions in the future. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2002 Gorat's steakhouse will be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 5, 2002, serving from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire's practice of keeping most shoe production in domestic factories has cost its shoe businesses heavily. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Over time GEICO will inevitably increase its market share significantly while achieving excellent profits, thanks to its low-cost advantage. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's policyholder growth slowed to a halt as 2000 progressed. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 28 Feb 2001 At the 2000 Berkshire meeting weekend baseball game, it took Buffett five pitches to throw anything resembling a strike. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire analyzes purchases on an all-equity basis, so its evaluations did not change when LBO operators became less aggressive in 2000. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's underwriting loss in 2000 produced a float cost of 6.1%. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire's negotiated acquisitions of entire businesses will at best provide only reasonable returns. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2001 Gorat's steakhouse will be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, April 29, 2001, serving from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2001 In its last 36 years, Berkshire has never had a manager of a significant subsidiary voluntarily leave to join another business. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Most of Berkshire's stock holdings are fully priced and are unlikely to deliver more than moderate returns in the future. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Because these transactions, which typically come in large chunks, can materially distort the company's figures, it will tell readers about them as they occur. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 28 Feb 2001 Buffett's investment results in the decade before 1951 were no better than average. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Absent a mega-catastrophe, Berkshire expected its float cost to fall in 2001, perhaps substantially, in large part because of pricing corrections at General Re. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2001 In most cases GEICO will be able to offer shareholders at the 2001 meeting a special discount, usually 8%. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 28 Feb 2001 The S&P 500 figures in Berkshire's comparison table are pre-tax, whereas Berkshire's figures are after-tax. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire paid for the 1993 Dexter acquisition using Berkshire shares. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Chess champion Patrick Wolff will play blindfolded against all comers in the mall at the 2001 Berkshire meeting weekend. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next 20 years. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2001 Nebraska Furniture Mart's shareholder weekend pricing from April 25-30, 2001 will apply to products of prestige manufacturers that normally forbid discounting. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett stated an expectation that, at GEICO, float would over time be free (no cost). Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2001 In 2000 Berkshire had an insurance underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, giving a float cost of 6%. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2001 The Washington Post Company reviews its acquisitions three years after they are made. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Feb 2001 The matter referred to on page 65 of the report will have no effect on Berkshire's intrinsic value. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire will hold its annual meeting at the Civic Auditorium on Saturday, April 28, 2001. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 28 Feb 2001 CORT looks like a good bet to beat Berkshire's original expectations for the business. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Promise 28 Feb 2001 If the new Convention Center is available, Buffett will poll shareholders on whether to return to a Monday annual meeting. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said "we believe" that Berkshire's gain in per-share intrinsic value for the year (2000) moderately exceeded its gain in book value, and he called this judgment "necessarily subjective". Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 28 Feb 2001 At the April 28, 2001 meeting, doors will open at 7 a.m., the movie will begin at 8:30 and the meeting will start at 9:30. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 Feb 2001 Buffett knew nothing about CORT but immediately printed out its SEC filings and liked what he saw. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Buffett and Charlie Munger will answer shareholder questions until 3:30 p.m. at the 2001 meeting, except for a noon break. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
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Warren Buffett

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“we have been paid properly for assuming the risk that caused the loss (which on that occasion we weren't).”

Warren Buffett, chairman, in shareholder letter 28 February 2002 Chairman's Letter (2001) (Berkshire Hathaway)

Berkshire lost $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the September 11th event without having been paid properly for the risk assumed.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Berkshire's 2001 annual report or 10-K shows September 11 losses of $2.0–2.5 billion (any reasonable pre-tax underwriting-loss measure), and the company states, or the evidence shows, that it had not been adequately paid (had underpriced) for the risks that produced the loss. Mostly true: the loss is within about 10% of the stated range and the underpricing point holds. Mixed: only one of the two holds. Mostly false: the loss is well outside the range, though related underpricing occurred. False: the loss figure is clearly different, and the evidence shows the risk was adequately priced.

Evidence

  1. Terrorism Risk Insurance: A Primer The American Action Forum · 8 May 2014
    “We did not price for manmade mega-cats, and we were foolish in not doing so. In effect, we, and the rest of the industry, included coverage for terrorist acts in policies covering other risks-and received no additional premium for doing so. That was a huge mistake.”
  2. Terrorism Risk Insurance: A Primer The American Action Forum · 8 May 2014
    “As a result of not explicitly excluding or otherwise addressing acts of terrorism carried out by independent actors or cells, insurers were unexpectedly left on the hook for almost $40 billion.”
  3. Management's Discussion Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 31 December 2000 Own record
    “In the aggregate, Berkshire�s reinsurance businesses recorded pre-tax underwriting losses of about $2.4 billion related to the terrorist attack.”
  4. Management's Discussion Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 31 December 2000 Own record
    “While the potential impact of catastrophes and other large individual property losses is normally factored into reinsurance prices, past pricing did not consider the unprecedented magnitude of possible losses arising from the terrorist acts.”
  5. Management's Discussion Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 31 December 2000 Own record
    “The severity of the losses arising from the September 11th attack underscored that risks of this kind were not contemplated in premium rates.”
  6. warren-buffett-wisdom/wiki/entities/general-re.md at main · innolight/warren-buffett-wisdom GitHub (user repository innolight/warren-buffett-wisdom)
    “It had been pricing property coverage from historical experience rather than current exposure, thereby assuming terrorism risk for free.”

Reasoning

Berkshire's 2001 annual report MD&A says its reinsurance businesses recorded pre-tax underwriting losses of about $2.4 billion from the September 11 attack (E3). That is inside the stated $2.0–2.5 billion range. The same filing says past pricing did not account for losses of that magnitude from terrorist acts, and that such risks were not contemplated in premium rates (E4, E5). That supports the point that Berkshire had not been adequately paid for the risk. Both criteria are met on the subject's official record.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Berkshire lost $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the September 11th event without having been paid properly for the risk assumed.” (said 28 February 2002). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_2c406d62320c, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2c406d62320c

Claims without a verdict

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