ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

14 claims

14 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 10 Nov 2025 Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century. Prediction · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2025 Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 The next major financial crisis will occur within a century, though timing is unknown. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 Over the next century no company will be dramatically better than others in returns. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 5 May 2024 Berkshire's CEO succession is settled for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 4 May 2024 The business he described will still be around 100 years from now. It will not be the best growth business in the world in that period, but it will be essential. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett says Berkshire's CEO succession problem is solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he was confident that, over the century, the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Promise 2010 Warren Buffett will continue to distribute about 4% of the Berkshire shares he retains each year. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 None of Warren Buffett's pledged money will go to endowments; it will be spent on current needs. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 More than 99% of Warren Buffett's wealth will go to philanthropy during his lifetime or at death. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 At the latest, proceeds from all of Warren Buffett's Berkshire shares will be spent for philanthropic purposes within 10 years after his estate is settled. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
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Warren Buffett

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“I will continue to annually distribute about 4% of the shares I retain.”

Warren Buffett, pledge letter author 2010 Warren Buffett - The Giving Pledge (Giving Pledge)

Warren Buffett will continue to distribute about 4% of the Berkshire shares he retains each year.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

An ongoing promise to keep giving about 4% annually has no completed horizon while he is alive, though past annual gifts are public.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Warren Buffett will continue to distribute about 4% of the Berkshire shares he retains each year.” (said 2010). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_136b741b0c07, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_136b741b0c07

Claims without a verdict

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