Warren Buffett

Prediction · Their own work or organisation

“Ron Peltier has built this business for us, and it's likely he will make more acquisitions in 2002 and the years to come.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman · 28 February 2002 · Chairman's Letter (2001) (Berkshire Hathaway)

Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The prediction is that HomeServices, the real estate brokerage business run by Ron Peltier, would make further brokerage acquisitions in 2002 and in the years after. Count acquisitions made by HomeServices while Peltier led it. TRUE: HomeServices completed at least one brokerage acquisition in 2002 and further acquisitions in later years (e.g., 2003–2006). MOSTLY TRUE: there were acquisitions in 2002 but few or none in the next several years, or acquisitions in later years only where the 2002 deal was announced in 2002 but closed in early 2003. MOSTLY FALSE: there were no acquisitions in 2002, but there were acquisitions in later years. FALSE: Berkshire, MidAmerican or HomeServices filings or reports show no brokerage acquisitions in 2002 or the following years.

Evidence

1. midamerican energy holdings company U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Form 10-K filed by MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company) · 2004

   “In 2002, HomeServices separately acquired three real estate companies for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $106.1 million, net of cash acquired, plus working capital and certain other adjustments.”

2. midamerican energy holdings company U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Form 10-K filed by MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company) · 2004

   “In 2003, HomeServices separately acquired four real estate companies for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $36.7 million, net of cash acquired, plus working capital and certain other adjustments.”

3. 2004 Buffett Letter: Solid Progress - 2004 buffettknowledge.com (republishing Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter) · 28 February 2005 Own record

   “About 24% of the increase came from six acquisitions made during the year.”

4. 2004 Buffett Letter: Solid Progress - 2004 buffettknowledge.com (republishing Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter) · 28 February 2005 Own record

   “HomeServices is almost certain to grow substantially in the next decade as we continue to acquire leading localized operations.”

Reasoning

MidAmerican's Form 10-K [E1] says that in 2002 HomeServices separately acquired three real estate companies for about $106.1 million, which meets the 2002 part of the prediction. The same filing [E2] reports four more acquisitions in 2003, and the 2004 Berkshire letter [E3, E4] mentions further acquisitions. These later acquisitions fall within the 'later years' (e.g., 2003–2006) that the resolution criteria count. The evidence shows three HomeServices acquisitions in 2002 [E1] and four more in 2003 [E2], which matches the criteria's description of acquisitions in 2002 and in later years.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years.” (said 28 February 2002). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_0d3415131237, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0d3415131237