Tyler Cowen

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  80 75 85

  High confidence, 93 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2004 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

  Not scored: 26 unresolvable, 14 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  Insufficient record: 4 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 31 unresolvable. 4 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

• Promises

  Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

  Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 1 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

  See the promises

All types combined: 80 (likely 75 to 85, high confidence), from 93 claims: 93 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.