ClaimsPeople

Tyler Cowen

Tyler Cowen is an economist, author and commentator who holds the Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and co-founded the Marginal Revolution blog.

775 claims collected, 174 researched, 97 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 75 85

    High confidence, 93 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2004 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 26 unresolvable, 14 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 4 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 31 unresolvable. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 80 (likely 75 to 85, high confidence), from 93 claims: 93 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Tyler Cowen's claims

4 claims

4 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students. Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Mostly true Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education. Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Resolved true Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Mostly true Prediction 13 May 2019 The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States. Prediction · 13 May 2019 Economics and markets
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Tyler Cowen

Open its page

Prediction Field building and careers

“I think they will attract a fair number of students.”

Tyler Cowen, interviewee 29 December 2021 Conversations with Tyler 2021 Retrospective (Ep. 139) (Conversations with Tyler)

The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judge on evidence up to the time of research. True: UATX has enrolled undergraduate cohorts of a meaningful size for a new college, roughly 100 or more students per entering class, or has a total student body of several hundred, or received thousands of applications. Mostly true: enrolment is somewhat below that but clearly substantial, for example several dozen to about 100 per cohort, with strong application numbers. Mixed: enrolment is small, with only a few dozen students in total. Mostly false: enrolment is minimal, or limited to non-degree summer programmes. False: UATX enrolled no students or closed.

Evidence

  1. U Austin Announces $100M Gift, End to Tuition "Forever" Inside Higher Ed · 5 November 2025
    “Carvalho said the university currently has 150 students in its freshman and sophomore classes, and he plans to grow total enrollment to 400 to 500 for now.”
  2. UATX launches, touting ideological openness, debate and— for now—free tuition CBS News · 21 September 2025
    “Olivia Antunes, Dylan Wu, Constantin Whitmire, Grace Price and Jacob Hornstein are among the 92 students in the inaugural class.”
  3. University of Austin opens applications for first class of students The Texas Tribune · 8 November 2023
    “School leaders also said they will offer the inaugural 100-student class full scholarships for the entirety of their four-year undergraduate program”
  4. University of Austin - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “At that point, the university's two classes, totaling 150 students, were educated by 34 academic staff members.”

Reasoning

CBS News reports that UATX's inaugural class had 92 students (E2). Inside Higher Ed and Wikipedia report that the first two classes together totalled 150 students by late 2025 (E1, E4), which puts the second cohort at about 58. The cohorts fall in the several-dozen-to-about-100 range, and the total of 150 is short of the "several hundred" named in the true threshold. No application figures appear in the evidence, so this fits mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Tyler Cowen, “The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students.” (said 29 December 2021). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_26cf968f0c36, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_26cf968f0c36

Claims without a verdict

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