Steven Pinker

Factual · AI, the economy and work

“Secular people stay home, and they don’t vote.”

Steven Pinker, interviewee · 9 October 2018 · An Interview with Steven Pinker (Santa Barbara Independent)

Secular people stay home and do not vote, unlike religious people, who organize and vote.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2018-10-09, read in a US context. The claim is that secular people vote and organize less than religious people. True: survey or turnout data (for example Pew, PRRI, CCES) show religiously unaffiliated or secular Americans vote at markedly lower rates than religious Americans. Mostly true: the gap is real but modest. 'Don't vote' is rhetorical; it does not literally require zero turnout. Mixed: the evidence is inconsistent across elections or measures. Mostly false: secular people vote at only slightly lower rates, so the claim greatly overstates the gap, or the turnout gap disappears once demographics are controlled for. False: secular people vote at similar or higher rates.

Evidence

1. Rethinking Religion and Political Participation: The Case of Voting Among Religiously Unaffiliated Americans Sociology of Religion (Oxford Academic) · 1 June 2023

   “Using an improved measure of validated voter turnout in four presidential election years (2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020), I find estimates of the secular voting gap are attenuated by demographic controls.”

2. Not religious, not voting? The ‘nones’ are a powerful force in politics – but not yet a coalition The Conversation · 6 September 2023

   “Once I controlled for other predictors of voting like age and education, “the nones” as a whole were equally likely to have a turnout record as religiously affiliated respondents.”

3. Not religious, not voting? The ‘nones’ are a powerful force in politics – but not yet a coalition The Conversation · 6 September 2023

   “With those same controls, people who identified their religion as simply “nothing in particular,” who are about two-thirds of the unaffiliated, were actually less likely to turn out in all four elections.”

4. 3. Are ‘nones’ less involved in civic life than people who identify with a religion? Pew Research Center · 24 January 2024

   “And religious “nones” are 12 points less likely than religiously affiliated citizens to have turned out to vote in the 2022 midterm elections (39% vs. 51%).”

Reasoning

A peer-reviewed study of validated turnout in the 2008, 2012 and 2016 presidential elections (plus 2020) finds that demographic controls shrink the secular voting gap (E1). The author's summary says that once age and education are controlled for, the unaffiliated as a whole were as likely to have a turnout record as religiously affiliated respondents (E2). The 'nothing in particular' subgroup did turn out less (E3), and Pew reports a 12-point raw gap in the 2022 midterms (E4). Under the criteria, a turnout gap that disappears once demographics are controlled for makes the claim mostly false.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Secular people stay home and do not vote, unlike religious people, who organize and vote.” (said 9 October 2018). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_bcbd27bdbbbb, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bcbd27bdbbbb