Steven Pinker

Factual · Philosophy, ethics and society

“Rising Enlightenment ideals in the Islamic world, riding a 6-decade global wave of liberal values documented by World Values Survey”

Steven Pinker, on X · 26 December 2019 · Post by @sapinker on X, 2019-12-26 (X)

Enlightenment ideals are rising in the Islamic world, riding a six-decade global wave of liberal values documented by the World Values Survey.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2019-12-26. The claim has two parts: (a) World Values Survey (WVS) data or published analyses of it (for example Welzel's 'emancipative values') show liberal or emancipative values rising worldwide over roughly six decades (WVS-based analyses that reach back to cohorts born in the mid-20th century or earlier count); (b) such values or Enlightenment ideals (for example gender equality, tolerance, individual autonomy, support for democracy) are rising in Muslim-majority countries. True: both parts are supported by WVS-based evidence. Mostly true: both are supported, with a small inaccuracy (for example the time span is somewhat shorter than six decades, or the rise in Islamic countries is measured by cohort or generation rather than over time). Mixed: one part is clearly supported and the other is not, or the evidence for the Islamic world is decidedly mixed across countries or values. Mostly false: the trend exists only in narrow measures or a few countries but is presented as general, or the Islamic-world rise is unproven. False: WVS data show liberal values stagnant or falling in the Islamic world, or show no global liberalizing trend.

Evidence

1. Trends in cultural values across 105 countries: 1980 to 2020 colinmathers.com (Colin Mathers blog) · 9 August 2020

   “The Islamic East is the major exception with very little change in either dimension.”

2. Trends in cultural values across 105 countries: 1980 to 2020 colinmathers.com (Colin Mathers blog) · 9 August 2020

   “while the other regions have also moved somewhat rightward in emancipative values, they have moved downwards away from secular-rational values towards to more traditional values.”

3. Trends in cultural values across 105 countries: 1980 to 2020 colinmathers.com (Colin Mathers blog) · 9 August 2020

   “The following graph bypasses these issues of comparability across waves to show the net trend in culture values from 1980 to 2020 as straight lines joining those two points.”

4. Trust and Tolerance across the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparative Perspective on the Impact of the Arab Uprisings Politics and Governance (Spierings, N.), via SSOAR/CORE · 24 March 2017

   “The analyses firstly show political-institutional trust falling in the uprisings’ aftermath in countries that went through democratic reform or regime change.”

Reasoning

The only WVS trend analysis provided covers 1980 to 2020, about four decades rather than six (E3). It reports that most regions moved somewhat toward emancipative values (E2), which partly supports a global liberalizing trend. However, it singles out the Islamic East as "the major exception with very little change in either dimension" (E1), so the claimed rise of Enlightenment ideals in the Islamic world is not supported. E4 deals with trust after the Arab uprisings, does not show a rise in liberal values, and only touches on the question indirectly. The evidence is thin, coming mostly from a single blog analysis, so the verdict is mostly false rather than false.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Enlightenment ideals are rising in the Islamic world, riding a six-decade global wave of liberal values documented by the World Values Survey.” (said 26 December 2019). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_69ed37cbeeba, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_69ed37cbeeba