ClaimsPeople

Nassim Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an author and risk researcher, known for the five-volume Incerto series, which includes Fooled by Randomness.

783 claims collected, 182 researched, 94 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    73 67 79

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2008 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 65 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 11 unresolvable. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 67 to 79, high confidence), from 94 claims: 94 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nassim Taleb's claims

1 claim

1 claim, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Promise 31 Dec 2019 Taleb is running Twitter symposia on topics in Principia Politica and will integrate the comments into the text. Promise · 31 Dec 2019 Their own work or organisation
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Nassim Taleb

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“running Twitter symposia around topics in PRINCIPIA POLITICA. The comments will be integrated in the text.”

Nassim Taleb, posting on X 31 December 2019 Post by @nntaleb on X, 2019-12-31 (X)

Taleb is running Twitter symposia on topics in Principia Politica and will integrate the comments into the text.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Reasoning

Intention to integrate comments into the text; only the author's drafting shows it, no deadline.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Taleb is running Twitter symposia on topics in Principia Politica and will integrate the comments into the text.” (said 31 December 2019). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_c648d5d10d47, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c648d5d10d47

Claims without a verdict

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