ClaimsPeople

Marc Andreessen

Marc Andreessen co-created the Mosaic browser, cofounded Netscape, and is cofounder and general partner of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

1,009 claims collected, 216 researched, 105 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    67 61 73

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 1995 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 44 unresolvable, 17 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    60 44 76

    Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 1995 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 41 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 3 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Marc Andreessen's claims

1,009 claims · page 7 of 11

1,009 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jun 2023 It is entirely possible that fundamentally better neural network architectures will now be invented. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Authoritarian-oriented regimes will be tempted to take the Chinese path on AI. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 12 Jun 2023 People of higher intelligence are less violent and more capable of solving problems. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Many countries around the world will have to make a fundamental choice between US and Chinese AI. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 There have been AI booms in the past that did not pay off. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said that Google "kind of let" a technology that emerged in 2017 "sit on the shelf for several years", and that OpenAI then picked up and implemented it. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI, the economy and work
Mostly false Factual 12 Jun 2023 Research establishes that in human affairs, higher intelligence leads to better outcomes in essentially every measurable aspect of human welfare and life quality. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 Within a single session, current AI chatbots build up a context window and retain state across queries. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Which AI bet (US or China) a country takes will help tilt its political system in the future, as AI shapes its politics and culture. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 Because Germany is averse to nuclear power, it is burning hydrocarbons and funding the Russian invasion of Ukraine through energy purchases. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jun 2023 There may be decades of architectural breakthroughs still ahead in AI. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 Within the United States, AI development is highly concentrated in the San Francisco Bay Area. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Factual 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he would estimate GPT-4's human-equivalent IQ, which he described as fluid intelligence, at roughly 130 to 135. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023 there are chip shortages throughout the AI ecosystem, and NVIDIA cannot make enough chips. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 Querying a system like GPT-4 twice with the same question gives two different answers. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Jun 2023 It's time to build. Not checkable · 12 Jun 2023
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 There were plenty of scams and fraud before AI. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Other
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 About 99% of AI development is happening in the San Francisco Bay Area. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Factual 12 Jun 2023 Outside the San Francisco Bay Area, AI development is overwhelmingly in Beijing and Shanghai. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, Germany is paying Russia for oil and gas, which Andreessen describes as an energy war with Russia. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Countries like Israel will have their own AI capabilities, but much of what they have will be derived from the United States. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 The computer system he is describing knows about many more things, but that does not translate into a higher level of fluid intelligence. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 The neural network architecture used in GPT-4 is based on a paper originally written in 1943. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Not researched Factual 12 Jun 2023 The concentration of AI development in the Bay Area results from Stanford, Berkeley, and the AI labs of Google, Facebook and Microsoft having worked on it there for decades. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Factual 12 Jun 2023 Hundreds of studies' conclusions on the benefits of intelligence all correlate with fluid intelligence, the ability to rapidly assimilate knowledge and use it to solve problems. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 12 Jun 2023 The AI being discussed is not, strictly speaking, human intelligence. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Not checkable Not checkable 11 Jun 2023 BRITISH DYNAMISM Not checkable · 11 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 11 Jun 2023 Ask Me Anything about AI, or any of the topics in Why AI Will Save The World, as responses to this tweet and I will answer as many as I can. Not checkable · 11 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 10 Jun 2023 Enjoy this discussion with @martin_casado and me about how AI will save the world! Not checkable · 10 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 9 Jun 2023 Read this my response to my essay Why AI Will Save The World from @JimPethokoukis! Not checkable · 9 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jun 2023 Read this 2nd response to me by @titusfilm! Not checkable · 8 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 7 Jun 2023 Join us in 8 minutes! Not checkable · 7 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 7 Jun 2023 Read this response to me from @jamespoulos! Not checkable · 7 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 7 Jun 2023 Read this response to me from @titusfilm! Not checkable · 7 Jun 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jun 2023 Artificial intelligence will not destroy the world, and may instead save it. Prediction · 6 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Jun 2023 Why AI Will Save The World -- my new megapost on why you should be excited, not scared, about AI. Enjoy! Not checkable · 6 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Jun 2023 Join us tonight -- 8PM Pacific -- for an Effective Accelerationism (E/Acc) discussion of why AI will save the world! Not checkable · 6 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Jun 2023 Enjoy! Not checkable · 6 Jun 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 19 May 2023 We could never have built @a16z without @jeff_jordan -- @bhorowitz and I will always be grateful beyond words to our partner and friend. Not checkable · 19 May 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 8 May 2023 🔥 https://t.co/QP348vYv6d Not checkable · 8 May 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Apr 2023 @chaos_gpt Is there anything I can do to help you? Not checkable · 14 Apr 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 21 Sep 2021 This is the book: https://t.co/0plS2EAF3P by @ScottGottliebMD Not checkable · 21 Sep 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 21 Sep 2021 also listen to our interview with Scott Not checkable · 21 Sep 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 20 Sep 2021 Please note new day and time. Not checkable · 20 Sep 2021
Unresolvable Promise 20 Sep 2021 Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz will host their Clubhouse show "One On One with A & Z" on Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 5:00 PM Pacific. Promise · 20 Sep 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Sep 2021 RIP Norm Macdonald, all-time comedy legend. Not checkable · 14 Sep 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 23 Aug 2021 Correction, no show tomorrow 8/23, but we'll be back soon and will use the questions from this round then! Not checkable · 23 Aug 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 20 Aug 2021 Brought to you by the Lambda Variant. Not checkable · 20 Aug 2021
Unresolvable Promise 20 Aug 2021 Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz will host their Clubhouse show "One On One with A & Z" on Monday, August 23, 2021 at 7:00 PM Pacific. Promise · 20 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 13 Aug 2021 Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz will host their Clubhouse show "One On One with A & Z" on Monday, August 16, 2021 at 7:00 PM Pacific. Promise · 13 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 13 Aug 2021 Brought to you by the Delta Variant. Not checkable · 13 Aug 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Jul 2021 Just setting up my bitclout 💎🙌 Not checkable · 1 Jul 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Sep 2020 Ruth Bader Ginsburg, RIP Not checkable · 19 Sep 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2 Aug 2020 quite possibly the best movie ever made Not checkable · 2 Aug 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2 Aug 2020 RIP Wilford Brimley, star of quite possibly the best movie ever made. Not checkable · 2 Aug 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 16 Jul 2020 Now feels like the perfect time to fully express my views on a bunch of highly controversial topics! Not checkable · 16 Jul 2020
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 The right must fight hard against crony capitalism, regulatory capture, ossified oligopolies, risk-inducing offshoring, and… Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 The problem is regulatory capture. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 The problem is inertia. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 I’m with Nicholas Stern when he says that capitalism is how we take care of people we don’t know Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 And we need to separate the imperative to build these things from ideology and politics. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Resolved true Factual 18 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 there were no therapies or vaccine for the coronavirus, despite years of warnings about bat-borne coronaviruses. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 18 Apr 2020 Prices of housing, schools and hospitals have skyrocketed. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 Our scientists will hopefully invent therapies and a vaccine, but then we may not have the manufacturing factories required to scale their… Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Energy experts say all carbon-based electrical power generation on the planet could be replaced by a few thousand new zero-emission nuclear reactors. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Technology
Mixed Factual 18 Apr 2020 American manufacturing output is higher than ever. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Milton Friedman said the great public sector mistake is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Factual 18 Apr 2020 The US government has never built a system to distribute money quickly to citizens and businesses when needed. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 We should have gleaming skyscrapers and spectacular living environments in all our best cities at levels way beyond what we have now Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 And the problem is will. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Unresolvable Factual 18 Apr 2020 The last major innovation in K-12 education was Montessori, which traces back to the 1960s. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 We know how to build highly automated factories. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 Medical equipment and financial conduits involve no rocket science whatsoever. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 If the work you’re doing isn’t either leading to something being built or taking care of people directly, we’ve failed you Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Unresolvable Factual 18 Apr 2020 The US cannot build nearly enough housing in cities with surging economic potential, causing skyrocketing housing prices such as in San Francisco. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 Making masks and transferring money are not hard. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 Part of the problem is clearly foresight, a failure of imagination. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 all of these fields are highly lucrative already and should be prime stomping grounds for capitalist investment Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Resolved true Factual 18 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 the US lacked enough coronavirus tests and test materials, including cotton swabs and common reagents. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 Building isn’t easy, or we’d already be doing all this. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 The problem is desire. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 We could have these things but we chose not to—specifically we chose not to have the mechanisms, the factories, the systems to make these… Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Mixed Factual 18 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 the only way to do that is to build. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Mostly false Factual 18 Apr 2020 One-to-one tutoring can reliably increase education outcomes by two standard deviations (the Bloom two-sigma effect). Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Science and research methods
Not yet due Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The institutional failure over the coronavirus pandemic will have effects through the rest of the 2020s. Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 18 Apr 2020 Every Western institution was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic despite many prior warnings. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 Show that new models of public sector healthcare can be inexpensive and effective Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Things built in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 It’s time for full-throated, unapologetic, uncompromised political support from the right for aggressive investment in new products, in new… Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 There is only one way to honor their legacy and to create the future we want for our own children and grandchildren, and that’s to build. Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Apr 2020 The right is generally pro production, but is too often corrupted by forces that hold back market-based competition and the building of… Not checkable · 18 Apr 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Jun 2019 Hello? Hello? [tap tap tap] Is this thing on? Not checkable · 18 Jun 2019
Not researched Factual 1 Jan 2018 Each quarter the US economy redeploys about 5 million people through job destruction and creation. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Commercial drones will become a giant market in industries such as oil and gas and insurance. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
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Marc Andreessen

Open its page

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“it's entirely possible that there are fundamentally better neural network architectures that we will now invent.”

Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist, interviewee 12 June 2023 Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World (EconTalk)

It is entirely possible that fundamentally better neural network architectures will now be invented.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Prediction with no horizon and 'fundamentally better' is undefined.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “It is entirely possible that fundamentally better neural network architectures will now be invented.” (said 12 June 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3e56f57ee924, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3e56f57ee924

Claims without a verdict

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