ClaimsPeople

Marc Andreessen

Marc Andreessen co-created the Mosaic browser, cofounded Netscape, and is cofounder and general partner of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

1,009 claims collected, 216 researched, 105 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    67 61 73

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 1995 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 44 unresolvable, 17 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    60 44 76

    Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 1995 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 41 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 3 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Marc Andreessen's claims

50 claims

50 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 The price of AI is falling faster than Moore's Law. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 The revenue growth rate of leading AI companies is faster than that of any previous technology wave Andreessen has seen. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 Neural networks were explored by a small group of people for about 80 years. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 In the 1980s, when Andreessen was in college, AI was a niche field and everyone thought it would never come true. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Substack started from scratch and declared up front that it would be a free speech platform. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 26 Jan 2025 The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen is a volunteer for the Trump administration when helpful, does not make its decisions and cannot speak for it. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 The US Constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Under the current interpretation of appropriations, a president who does not want to spend appropriated money cannot decline to spend it. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Incumbent universities, through accreditation, are in complete control of who gets access to federal student loan money. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Other
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen does not speak for DOGE and is not in charge of DOGE. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 The United States is the main place where the world's best and brightest foreign students get educated. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 The US is adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days, and it is now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and compounding. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen has made the argument in favour of high-skilled immigration and H-1B visas many times. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 16 Oct 2023 Markets are by far the most effective way to lift vast numbers of people out of poverty, and always have been. Factual · 16 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 Ray Kurzweil kind of took that idea to the next level and applied it specifically to AI. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 That did not happen, after the President created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which aimed to prevent it. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 Almost nothing is 40% causative of anything, apart from a very small number of exceptions. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 The Transformer algorithm, a neural net form that works in a sort of generalized way, was a recent theoretical breakthrough. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023 there are chip shortages throughout the AI ecosystem, and NVIDIA cannot make enough chips. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Energy experts say all carbon-based electrical power generation on the planet could be replaced by a few thousand new zero-emission nuclear reactors. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Technology
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Milton Friedman said the great public sector mistake is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Things built in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 A single individual can now build a self-driving car, whereas ten years ago it was a DARPA-funded research challenge. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 This new AI technology is the same technology Google's AI used to beat a human Go player. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Mostly true Prediction 1 Jan 2018 In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Roof inspection, which involves a person climbing up on a roof and taking notes, is a fairly dangerous job. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Peter Thiel flatly says the iPhone does not count as innovation. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Silicon Valley has become increasingly assertive in entering other industries directly, rather than only selling tools. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 May 2017 In 1992 it was widely held that the internet was for academics and nerds, with no use case for ordinary people. Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mostly true Factual 28 May 2017 The University of Illinois, where Andreessen went to college, was then one of four US universities government-funded as hubs for NSFNET, which became the internet. Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mostly true Factual 20 Aug 2011 Skype, the fastest growing telecom company, was just bought by Microsoft for $8.5 billion. Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 Netscape did not have a major sales force in Europe as of June 1995. Factual · Jun 1995 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 The government set the OSI networking standard, which nobody uses. Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 Cryptography is export-controlled by the US government as a munition, and Netscape makes exportable versions of its software, which are the ones predominantly used on the Internet. Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 The Internet already existed when Andreessen began working at the university lab, and everybody there used it. Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 The networks in question all use TCP/IP, which was not a government standard. Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 In June 1995, Andreessen said he thought Netscape had about six million Navigator users on the public network, not counting users behind firewalls. Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 The Mosaic team designed Mosaic with end users as its target. Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 Internet access was never free; it always cost money. Factual · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Marc Andreessen

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Factual Economics and markets

“Bit Coin is still working today, exactly the same as it worked last year and the year before that and the year before that.”

Marc Andreessen, interviewee 1 January 2018 The Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Marc Andreessen (#163) (Tim Ferriss blog)

Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of the date it was said (around early 2018). True: the Bitcoin network kept running through recent price crashes and had produced blocks and processed transactions continuously in the prior years without a protocol failure or prolonged outage, so it was working as it had in previous years. Mostly true: the network kept operating continuously, but with minor differences that the rhetorical 'exactly the same' glosses over (for example high fees and congestion in late 2017, or soft-fork changes such as SegWit in 2017) and that do not amount to it not working. Mixed: the network kept running, but significant disruptions or changes to how it works (such as long congestion making ordinary transactions impractical) make 'exactly the same' only about half right. Mostly false: the network was operating, but it had had serious failures or functional breakdowns in the period described. False: the Bitcoin network had stopped functioning or had a prolonged halt in that period.

Evidence

  1. Bitcoin's Transaction Queue Sets a New Record news.bitcoin.com · 23 February 2017
    “During peak hours of the day, over 100,000 transactions were unconfirmed, and many people were once again experiencing significant delays.”
  2. Following a Day of Delays, Lukejr Proposes to Decrease the Block Size news.bitcoin.com · 27 January 2017
    “Throughout this period the backlog within the Bitcoin mempool has grown considerably having people waiting hours if not days for one confirmation.”
  3. SegWit - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 2 August 2017
    “On 8 November 2017, the developers of SegWit2x announced that the hard fork planned for around 16 November 2017 was canceled due to a lack of consensus.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 report heavy mempool congestion in early 2017: more than 100,000 unconfirmed transactions at peak and waits of hours or days for confirmation. These describe delays rather than a halt, so the network was still operating. E4 shows the planned SegWit2x hard fork was cancelled, so it did not change how the network ran. The network kept working, but the congestion is a difference that 'exactly the same' glosses over, which fits the mostly-true criterion.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_d32949c8dead, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d32949c8dead

Claims without a verdict

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