ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“Bit Coin is still working today, exactly the same as it worked last year and the year before that and the year before that.”

Marc Andreessen, interviewee 1 January 2018 The Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Marc Andreessen (#163) (Tim Ferriss blog) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of the date it was said (around early 2018). True: the Bitcoin network kept running through recent price crashes and had produced blocks and processed transactions continuously in the prior years without a protocol failure or prolonged outage, so it was working as it had in previous years. Mostly true: the network kept operating continuously, but with minor differences that the rhetorical 'exactly the same' glosses over (for example high fees and congestion in late 2017, or soft-fork changes such as SegWit in 2017) and that do not amount to it not working. Mixed: the network kept running, but significant disruptions or changes to how it works (such as long congestion making ordinary transactions impractical) make 'exactly the same' only about half right. Mostly false: the network was operating, but it had had serious failures or functional breakdowns in the period described. False: the Bitcoin network had stopped functioning or had a prolonged halt in that period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Bitcoin's Transaction Queue Sets a New Record news.bitcoin.com · 23 February 2017

    “During peak hours of the day, over 100,000 transactions were unconfirmed, and many people were once again experiencing significant delays.”
  2. E2 Following a Day of Delays, Lukejr Proposes to Decrease the Block Size news.bitcoin.com · 27 January 2017

    “Throughout this period the backlog within the Bitcoin mempool has grown considerably having people waiting hours if not days for one confirmation.”
  3. E3 SegWit - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 2 August 2017

    “On 8 November 2017, the developers of SegWit2x announced that the hard fork planned for around 16 November 2017 was canceled due to a lack of consensus.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 report heavy mempool congestion in early 2017: more than 100,000 unconfirmed transactions at peak and waits of hours or days for confirmation. These describe delays rather than a halt, so the network was still operating. E4 shows the planned SegWit2x hard fork was cancelled, so it did not change how the network ran. The network kept working, but the congestion is a difference that 'exactly the same' glosses over, which fits the mostly-true criterion.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_d32949c8dead, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d32949c8dead

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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