Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
79 72 85 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
80 72 88 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 79 (likely 74 to 84, high confidence), from 102 claims: 64 factual claims, 38 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Gary Marcus's claims
“GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”
Gary Marcus, author 27 July 2025 What to Expect When You're Expecting … GPT-5 (Marcus on AI)
OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
'About to drop' is read as a release within roughly one month of 2025-07-27. True: OpenAI publicly released a model named GPT-5 (available to users or through the API) on or before 2025-08-27. Mostly true: it was released by 2025-08-27, but only in a limited form, for example to a restricted group, while still officially launched as GPT-5. Mostly false: it was released after 2025-08-27 but by 2025-10-27. False: it was not released by 2025-10-27, or OpenAI announced a delay or cancellation. A release under a different name does not count.
Evidence
- Introducing GPT-5 OpenAI · 7 August 2025
“GPT‑5 is starting to roll out today to all Plus, Pro, Team, and Free users, with access for Enterprise and Edu coming next week.”
- Introducing GPT-5 for developers OpenAI · 7 August 2025
“Today, we’re releasing GPT‑5 in our API platform—our best model yet for coding and agentic tasks.”
- OpenAI claims new GPT-5 model boosts ChatGPT to ‘PhD level’ BBC · 7 August 2025
“The company will roll out the model to all users from Thursday.”
Reasoning
OpenAI's launch post, dated 2025-08-07, says GPT-5 "is starting to roll out today" to Plus, Pro, Team and Free users (E1). Its developer post from the same day says GPT-5 is being released in the API (E2). The BBC, an independent source, reported the rollout to all users the same day (E3). The release came before the 2025-08-27 cutoff, so the prediction resolved true.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.” (said 27 July 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_1c16957bd93e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1c16957bd93e
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Gary Marcus? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.