ClaimsGary Marcus

“GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”

Gary Marcus, author 27 July 2025 What to Expect When You're Expecting … GPT-5 (Marcus on AI) archived copy

Prediction AI capabilities

OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

'About to drop' is read as a release within roughly one month of 2025-07-27. True: OpenAI publicly released a model named GPT-5 (available to users or through the API) on or before 2025-08-27. Mostly true: it was released by 2025-08-27, but only in a limited form, for example to a restricted group, while still officially launched as GPT-5. Mostly false: it was released after 2025-08-27 but by 2025-10-27. False: it was not released by 2025-10-27, or OpenAI announced a delay or cancellation. A release under a different name does not count.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Introducing GPT-5 OpenAI · 7 August 2025

    “GPT‑5 is starting to roll out today to all Plus, Pro, Team, and Free users, with access for Enterprise and Edu coming next week.”

  2. E2 Introducing GPT-5 for developers OpenAI · 7 August 2025

    “Today, we’re releasing GPT‑5 in our API platform—our best model yet for coding and agentic tasks.”

  3. E3 OpenAI claims new GPT-5 model boosts ChatGPT to ‘PhD level’ BBC · 7 August 2025

    “The company will roll out the model to all users from Thursday.”

Reasoning

OpenAI's launch post, dated 2025-08-07, says GPT-5 "is starting to roll out today" to Plus, Pro, Team and Free users (E1). Its developer post from the same day says GPT-5 is being released in the API (E2). The BBC, an independent source, reported the rollout to all users the same day (E3). The release came before the 2025-08-27 cutoff, so the prediction resolved true.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.” (said 27 July 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_1c16957bd93e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1c16957bd93e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Gary Marcus, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “Some of its advice will be head-scratchingly bad.”

    Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 will surely be better, a lot better than GPT-4.”

    GPT-5 will be considerably better than GPT-4.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “It will still make a significant number of shake-your-head stupid errors, in ways that are hard to fully predict.”

    GPT-5 will still make a significant number of obvious errors that are hard to predict.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent.”

    Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent in 2025.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Sora will continue to have trouble with physics.”

    OpenAI's Sora will continue to have trouble with physics in 2025.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.