ClaimsPeople

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Eliezer Yudkowsky founded the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) and LessWrong, co-authored the best-selling book 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' (Little, Brown, 2025), and was named to the TIME100 AI 2023 list.

2,016 claims collected, 236 researched, 79 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 82

    High confidence, 71 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2007 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 23 candidates found.

    Not scored: 50 unresolvable, 8 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    60 42 78

    Low confidence, 8 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2008 to 2024; 18 documents sampled from 23 candidates found.

    Not scored: 97 unresolvable. 1 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 74 (likely 68 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 71 factual claims, 8 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Eliezer Yudkowsky's claims

1 claim

1 claim, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 30 Mar 2023 If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them. Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
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Eliezer Yudkowsky

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Prediction AI safety and alignment

“Sure, I think that if half of today’s physicists stop wasting their lives on string theory or whatever, and go off and study what goes on inside transformer networks, then in 30, 40 years, we’d probably have a pretty good idea.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 30 March 2023 Lex Fridman Podcast #368 Eliezer Yudkowsky transcript (Podscript)

If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2063 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them.” (said 30 March 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_8a999e0cf8e8, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8a999e0cf8e8

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