ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“Sure, I think that if half of today’s physicists stop wasting their lives on string theory or whatever, and go off and study what goes on inside transformer networks, then in 30, 40 years, we’d probably have a pretty good idea.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 30 March 2023 Lex Fridman Podcast #368 Eliezer Yudkowsky transcript (Podscript) archived copy

Prediction AI safety and alignment

If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2063 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them.” (said 30 March 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_8a999e0cf8e8, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8a999e0cf8e8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  2. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”

    GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2008
    “Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.”

    Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.

  5. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.