AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

'A few years' is taken as about three years from April 2023. True: by then there is no broad expert consensus, among AI safety researchers and leading labs, that the alignment problem (reliably aligning advanced or superhuman AI) has been solved. Mostly true: no consensus exists, but some lab or researcher has claimed a solution that is widely disputed. Mixed: a significant share of experts consider alignment largely solved. Mostly false: most experts accept a claimed solution, with notable dissent. False: there is broad expert and lab consensus that alignment of advanced AI has been solved.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 AI alignment is solvable / YouCongress YouCongress · 22 October 2026

   “Fundamentally, we just do not know how to do alignment. If somebody came with a thousand-page document that explained exactly how to do everything, we couldn’t get a model to learn exactly that.”

2. E2 AI alignment is solvable / YouCongress YouCongress · 3 November 2026

   “Many AI researchers grant these concerns and recognize that the hard version of the alignment problem is unsolved; however, they generally believe that the better models of the future will help solve it.”

3. E3 Automated researchers can reliably mitigate alignment failures Anthropic · 28 August 2026

   “Overall, we view these results as early positive signals that automated alignment post-training could become practical in the near term, and we will share updates as this work progresses.”

4. E4 Survey of AI safety leaders on x-risk, AGI timelines, and resource allocation (Feb 2026) EA Forum · 25 March 2026

   “Current safety frameworks and evaluation practices are necessary but insufficient.”

A survey of AI safety leaders conducted in February 2026 reports that current safety frameworks and evaluation practices are "necessary but insufficient" (E4). Later statements from AI safety researchers say alignment is still not known how to do (E1) and that the hard version of the problem is unsolved (E2). In August 2026 Anthropic described its automated alignment work only as "early positive signals" (E3). None of this points to a broad expert or lab consensus that alignment of advanced AI was solved by April 2026, so the prediction resolves true.