ClaimsPeople

Bill Gates

Bill Gates is a co-founder of Microsoft, chair of the Gates Foundation, and author of the Gates Notes blog.

583 claims collected, 186 researched, 85 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    77 71 83

    High confidence, 79 factual claims resolved. From 17 documents, 1999 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 16 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    58 38 77

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2015 to 2025; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 49 unresolvable. 26 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Gates's claims

2 claims

2 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
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Bill Gates

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Prediction Biosecurity

“Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part to the leadership of President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, joint letter 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes)

Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

'Soon' is read as within about five years of the 2015 statement, giving a horizon of 2020-12-31. True: by that date the WHO certified guinea worm (dracunculiasis) eradication, or zero human and animal cases were reported worldwide, and the Carter Center is credited with a leading role in the effort. Mostly true: zero human cases were reported by the horizon but certification or the elimination of animal infections was still pending, or eradication was achieved with a minor discrepancy in attribution. Mostly false: cases fell to very low levels (for example dozens of human cases a year) but the disease was not eradicated by the horizon, or eradication came only after 2020. False: the disease was not near eradication by the horizon, with hundreds of cases or more, or there was a resurgence. The attribution to Carter and the Carter Center is secondary and lowers the verdict by at most one step if it proves unfounded.

Evidence

  1. Dracunculiasis eradication: global surveillance summary, 2020 World Health Organization (Weekly Epidemiological Record) · 28 May 2021
    “In 2020, 6 countries reported a total of 27 human cases of dracunculiasis, namely, Angola (1 case), Cameroon (1 case) Chad (12 cases), Ethiopia (11), Mali (1) and South Sudan (1 case), in a total of 19 villages.”
  2. Dracunculiasis eradication: global surveillance summary, 2020 World Health Organization (Weekly Epidemiological Record) · 28 May 2021
    “Seven countries remain to be certified: Angola, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan and Sudan.”
  3. Number of reported indigenous dracunculiasis cases in humans and infections in animals, by country — worldwide, January 2019–June 2021 CDC, MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report), vol. 70, no. 44, co-authored with The Carter Center and WHO collaborating centre · 5 November 2021
    “Animal infections have now overtaken human cases, with 1,601 reported animal infections in 2020”
  4. Annual Report 2019 - Health Programs The Carter Center · 1 January 2025
    “The Carter Center reported just 54 human cases in 2019, along with 1,994 infections in animals, mostly dogs in Chad.”

Reasoning

WHO's 2020 surveillance summary reports 27 human dracunculiasis cases across six countries in 2020 (E1), and says seven countries still had to be certified (E2). A CDC MMWR report records 1,601 animal infections in 2020 and says animal infections had overtaken human cases (E3). The disease therefore fell to dozens of human cases a year but was not eradicated by the 2020-12-31 horizon. Under the criteria, that is mostly false.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_140d8fd896b4, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_140d8fd896b4

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