Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
58 38 77
All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Gates's claims
“If the regulations limit digital banking, as is still the case in most countries, innovators can’t enter.”
Bill and Melinda Gates, annual letter authors 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes)
Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2015: did regulations in most countries (more than half) still limit digital banking or digital financial services, e.g. by barring non-bank providers, requiring a bank licence, restricting e-money or agent banking, or imposing heavy KYC barriers? True: cross-country regulatory surveys show a majority of countries had such restrictions in 2015. Mostly true: about half or a clear majority of developing countries (the claim's evident context) had such limits, though the global share is a little under half. Mixed: restrictions were common but clearly a minority, or the evidence splits by region. Mostly false: only a minority of countries had material restrictions, though some notable markets did. False: most countries had enabling frameworks that let non-bank innovators enter.
Evidence
- An Empirical Examination of Why Mobile Money Schemes Ignite in Some Developing Countries but Flounder in Most SSRN (Evans, David S. and Pirchio, Alexis; University of Chicago Coase-Sandor Institute Research Paper No. 723) · 14 March 2015
“Heavy regulation, and in particular an insistence that banks play a central role in the schemes, together with burdensome KYC and agent restrictions, is generally fatal to igniting mobile money schemes.”
- An Empirical Examination of Why Mobile Money Schemes Ignite in Some Developing Countries but Flounder in Most SSRN (Evans, David S. and Pirchio, Alexis; University of Chicago Coase-Sandor Institute Research Paper No. 723) · 14 March 2015
“We found that of the 22 countries, mobile money schemes have grown rapidly in 8; mobile money schemes have grown but not rapidly in 3; and mobile money schemes have largely failed to take hold in 8.”
- BRIEF Standard-Setting Bodies Implications for Customers ... (Digital Financial Inclusion: Implications for Customers, Regulators, Supervisors, and Standard-Setting Bodies) CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, World Bank-hosted) · February 2015
“Innovative digital financial services involving the use of mobile phones have been launched in more than 80 countries (GSMA 2014).”
- BRIEF Standard-Setting Bodies Implications for Customers ... (Digital Financial Inclusion: Implications for Customers, Regulators, Supervisors, and Standard-Setting Bodies) CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, World Bank-hosted) · February 2015
“A 2015 report by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) on its 2013 survey of 59 jurisdictions and their regulatory and supervisory practices regarding institutions relevant to financial inclusion reveals significant variation both in the complexity of the surveyed financial sectors and in the survey respondents’ regulatory and supervisory approaches (BCBS 2015).”
- Digital Financial Inclusion: Implications for Customers, Regulators, Supervisors, and Standard-Setting Bodies CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, World Bank) · February 2015
“Innovative digital financial services involving the use of mobile phones have been launched in more than 80 countries (GSMA 2014).”
- Digital Financial Inclusion: Implications for Customers, Regulators, Supervisors, and Standard-Setting Bodies CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, World Bank) · February 2015
“A 2015 report by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) on its 2013 survey of 59 jurisdictions and their regulatory and supervisory practices regarding institutions relevant to financial inclusion reveals significant variation both in the complexity of the surveyed financial sectors and in the survey respondents’ regulatory and supervisory approaches (BCBS 2015).”
- Digital Financial Inclusion: Implications for Customers, Regulators, Supervisors, and Standard-Setting Bodies CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, World Bank) · February 2015
“Innovative digital financial services typically involve at least one bank and one nonbank in both the electronic storage and management of data and the holding of customers’ funds.”
- EPAR_UW_Request_313_Mobile Money Regulations and Interoperability_10.7.15 Evans School Policy Analysis and Research (EPAR), University of Washington (hosted on SlideShare) · 8 September 2015
“Twenty-four of 33 countries’ regulations currently permit “non-bank” models of operation for mobile money.”
- [PDF] DIGITAL FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS TO ADVANCE WOMEN'S ECONOMIC PARTICIPATION World Bank Development Research Group, Better Than Cash Alliance, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Women's World Banking (report to the G20 Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion) · 16 November 2015
“The legal and regulatory environment does not enable mobile phone-based or other non-bank transaction services, and it does not encourage the development of a digital payments ecosystem.”
- Can Regulation Promote Financial Inclusion? (Policy Research Working Paper 8711) World Bank, Development Economics, Global Indicators Group · January 2019
“At the country level, today about two-thirds of the national regulatory and supervisory agencies worldwide are directly supporting financial inclusion by easing entry barriers”
- What is the availability of mobile money services in 2015? GSMA · 21 March 2016
“In terms of global availability, mobile money services are live in 64% of developing countries (86 of 135 countries)”
Reasoning
E8, a 2015 review, found that the regulations of 24 of 33 countries permitted non-bank models of mobile money, so only a minority of those countries barred non-bank providers. GSMA (E11) reports mobile money live in 64% of developing countries in 2015, which also points against restrictions in most countries. On the other side, E1 says heavy regulation, bank-centric requirements, KYC burdens and agent restrictions are generally fatal to igniting mobile money schemes. E4/E6 describe wide variation between countries. Overall, restrictions were common in 2015 but appear to cover a minority of countries rather than most, though no source measures every type of restriction across all countries.
Cite this claim
Bill Gates, “Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering.” (said 2015). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_59894e7feffc, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_59894e7feffc
Claims without a verdict
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