Bill Ackman: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

76 70 81

High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

68 54 82

Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

272 claims · page 2 of 3

272 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Unresolvable	Factual	2024	Cumulative total NAV return since inception is 2,078% versus 592% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2024	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	4 Aug 2022	Discover was still providing payment services to MindGeek as of 4 August 2022, despite Visa and Mastercard suspending theirs. Factual · 4 Aug 2022	Other
Unresolvable	Factual	2 Aug 2022	Visa CEO Al Kelly had not been willing to appear on camera to address the allegations as of 2 August 2022. Factual · 2 Aug 2022	Other
Resolved false	Factual	2 Aug 2022	As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites. Factual · 2 Aug 2022	Other
Unresolvable	Promise	1 Aug 2022	Bill Ackman will appear on CNBC at 8:20am on 2 August 2022 to discuss what he called Visa's continued facilitation of child trafficking on PornHub and affiliated sites. Promise · 1 Aug 2022	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	31 Jul 2022	The Pershing Square Foundation is not involved in this case but has supported organizations working to stop human trafficking and image-based abuse. Factual · 31 Jul 2022	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	30 Jul 2022	Bill Ackman and his firm have no economic interest, long or short, in Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Amex or any other payments company, processing company, bank or financial institution. Factual · 30 Jul 2022	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	29 Jul 2022	Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Factual · 29 Jul 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	29 Jul 2022	The Big Four accounting firms are not directly exposed to gas or food inflation. Factual · 29 Jul 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	27 Jul 2022	Since the close on 14 June 2022, 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates were down 36, 70 and 41 basis points respectively as of 27 July 2022. Factual · 27 Jul 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	14 Jul 2022	Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Factual · 14 Jul 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	5 Jul 2022	There had been 309 mass shootings in the US year-to-date as of 5 July 2022, about 12 per week. Factual · 5 Jul 2022	Other
Resolved true	Factual	4 Jul 2022	Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022. Factual · 4 Jul 2022	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	26 Jan 2022	To fund the Netflix purchase, Pershing Square unwound the substantial majority of its interest rate hedge over several days, generating proceeds of $1.25 billion. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	26 Jan 2022	Netflix's improving free cash flow profile should allow continued investment in growth and return of cash to shareholders. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	26 Jan 2022	Pershing Square acquired more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix over several days from Friday, making it a top-20 shareholder. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	26 Jan 2022	Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	26 Jan 2022	Netflix's substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	26 Jan 2022	Netflix's economies of scale and industry-leading content should continue to drive future growth and widen its competitive moat. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	26 Jan 2022	Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	26 Jan 2022	Pershing Square's interest rate hedge notional size was reduced by 80%, its retained hedge term extended, and its dollar investment in hedges reduced by more than 90%. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	26 Jan 2022	Pershing Square had never previously owned a stake in Netflix. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	26 Jan 2022	Pershing Square began analyzing Netflix in connection with its Universal Music Group investment, before Netflix's stock price declined sharply the previous Friday. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Promise	2022	SPARC will have no shareholder warrants or underwriting fees and only common stock outstanding, other than 20% out-of-the-money Sponsor and Director Warrants on 5.21% of the post-transaction company. Promise · 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	The statement said "we believe" that Hilton would continue to grow its market share at an attractive rate over time. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Bill Ackman said "we believe" that all of "our portfolio companies" will generate long-term durable growth, citing their market positions, free cash flow generation, returns on capital, pricing power and balance sheets. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Mixed	Factual	2022	Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Pershing Square said in 2022 that it expected that, with continued strong performance, PSH's discount to NAV would narrow and its NAV and market value returns would converge. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	2022	Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	The subject said they believe home improvement industry demand is likely to normalize at a higher baseline than before the pandemic. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	2022	Pershing Square has always sought to have positive, constructive engagements with its portfolio companies and their boards and management teams. Factual · 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Pershing Square said it believes successful completion and integration of the KCS acquisition will lead to attractive investment returns relative to its purchase price for CP. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	2022	In 2021 Chipotle generated average restaurant sales of $2.6 million, exceeding the 2015 peak of $2.5 million. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2022	PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Bill Ackman said "we expect" the railroad industry's share of the freight transportation market to meaningfully improve from current levels. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	The statement attributed to Bill Ackman said "we" expect CP's leadership team to make significant operational improvements at KCS. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	2022	The 2022 swaptions have more than tripled in value from their original cost. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Lowe's is headed for another year of double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2022. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Prediction	2022	Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	The speaker said "we" expect each of the holdings listed just before the quote (including Restaurant Brands, Domino's, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hilton and Canadian Pacific) to grow revenues and profitability over the long term. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Risk premiums should continue to rise. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2022	Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Factual · 2022	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2022	Universal Music Group is the world's leading music entertainment company. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Pershing Square said it believes the SPARC structure will, over time, enable it to own large stakes in high quality, newly public businesses that meet its investment criteria. Prediction · 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Pershing Square expects its portfolio companies to continue to compound their intrinsic values at even higher rates than before due to their currently reduced valuations. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Prediction	2022	UMG does not need to acquire catalogs to continue its strong growth and achieve its medium-term guidance from its last Capital Markets Day. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2022	There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Speaking as "we", the statement said they believe CP's acquisition of KCS will be transformational for CP's rail network. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	UMG can grow revenues at an annual rate approaching double digits for more than a decade. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Mixed	Promise	2022	If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022. Promise · 2022	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	2022	Rail transportation is cheaper than trucking over longer distances. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	The current geopolitical environment has increased the probability of significant North American onshoring and energy investment, which would strengthen CP's volume growth over time. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	2022	Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Mixed	Factual	2022	Day One Investors multiplied their equity investment by 18 times versus six times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Pershing Square believes the businesses it owns have substantial pricing power that will enable them to cover the costs of inflation. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2022	Deglobalization appears to be coming to the capital markets, much as the world is deglobalizing. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The NYSE has offered to work closely with PSTH and the SEC to accelerate the necessary rule change for SPARC warrants. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The Sponsor Warrants restrict selling, hedging or transferring for three years after the initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	19 Aug 2021	PSTH's ability to complete a transaction in the required time frame has been impaired by the lawsuit. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	Robert Jackson served as an SEC Commissioner between January 2018 and February 2020. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	Holding cash and government securities while seeking a business combination does not make PSTH or other SPACs illegal investment companies. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	As of August 2021, PSTH has about 11 months remaining to enter into a letter of intent for its initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Promise	19 Aug 2021	PSTH shareholders will receive $20 per share in cash and one SPARC warrant per share owned, following the cash return. Promise · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	The time needed to resolve the lawsuit will increase the likelihood that the Sponsor and Director Warrants expire worthless. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	Listing SPARC warrants on the NYSE requires an NYSE rule change subject to SEC approval, which is being pursued with the NYSE. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	A successful claim in the lawsuit would imply that every SPAC may also be an illegal investment company. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	None of PSTH's directors nor its Sponsor has received or been promised any compensation of any kind. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	Had the UMG transaction closed, the Pershing Square Funds would have invested $1.6 billion in PSTH units on the same terms as IPO investors. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The two law professors behind the lawsuit told the press their motivation was to reform the entire SPAC industry. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	The existence of the litigation may deter potential merger partners from working with PSTH until the lawsuit is resolved. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	The lawsuit against PSTH is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	Ackman stated that "we expect" all PSTH shareholders would be highly supportive of the rule change needed to replace the Distributable Warrants with SPARC Distributable Warrants. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The abandoned PSTH/UMG deal is the only SPAC business combination known to the speaker where the sponsor would have received no additional consideration versus other shareholders. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Promise	19 Aug 2021	If SPARC is approved by the SEC and its warrants by the NYSE and PSTH has not entered a merger, Pershing Square intends to seek PSTH shareholder approval to return the $4 billion of cash held in trust. Promise · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The SPARC warrants will remove the two-year "shot clock" for a sponsor to complete a transaction. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	10 Dec 2020	Visa has suspended payments to Pornhub. Factual · 10 Dec 2020	Other
Unresolvable	Promise	19 Nov 2020	Bill Ackman will match donations to a cause dollar for dollar. Promise · 19 Nov 2020	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	17 Nov 2020	Once exposed to Covid, a person can infect and kill others. Factual · 17 Nov 2020	Biosecurity
Resolved true	Factual	17 Nov 2020	As of mid-November 2020, Covid had infected 11.5 million Americans and killed 252,000, about 1 in 45 of those infected. Factual · 17 Nov 2020	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Factual	17 Nov 2020	Face masks against Covid are available for 15 cents each. Factual · 17 Nov 2020	Biosecurity
Mixed	Prediction	16 Nov 2020	Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Prediction	16 Nov 2020	If the US does not take Covid seriously, another 500,000 Americans will die of Covid. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Jan 2019	If Congress members went unpaid during shutdowns like federal workers, the US would no longer have government shutdowns. Prediction · 25 Jan 2019	AI policy and governance
Unresolvable	Factual	17 May 2018	Dawn Lepore joined the Pershing Square Advisory Board in the quarter referred to as "this quarter" in the statement made on 2018-05-17. Factual · 17 May 2018	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	17 May 2018	Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	17 May 2018	Pratt & Whitney's profit margins, currently depressed by losses from the GTF program ramp-up, should expand meaningfully as the GTF engine begins generating aftermarket revenues. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	17 May 2018	Pershing Square expected PSH's discount to NAV to narrow given reduced free float, a substantially increased investment by the investment manager and improved investment performance. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	17 May 2018	HHC's share of stabilized cash flow from the project is estimated to be over $19 million. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	17 May 2018	These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	17 May 2018	HHC arranged third-party debt and preferred and common equity commitments reducing HHC's cash investment in the project to $49 million. Factual · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	17 May 2018	Pershing Square said it believed Tim Hortons' recent same-store sales slowdown would ultimately prove temporary, and expected the "Winning Together" plan and recent leadership changes to enable a return to historical growth rates. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	17 May 2018	Mondelez's valuation gap should close as it reports differentiated results over the coming quarters. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	17 May 2018	Ackman said that, because Congress had not put forth a viable plan since conservatorship began, "we believe" it was increasingly likely that the administration and FHFA would soon take the lead on housing finance reform. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Other
Resolved true	Factual	17 May 2018	The total estimated cost of Howard Hughes' 110 North Wacker project is $761 million, with an estimated 7.9% unlevered yield on cost. Factual · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	17 May 2018	Pershing Square estimates more than 70% of Otis' profits come from its service contracts. Factual · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	17 May 2018	Howard Hughes Corp adopted a new revenue recognition standard in Q1 2018 that significantly reduced GAAP revenue and earnings but not intrinsic value or cash flows. Factual · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	17 May 2018	Mondelez should continue to deliver sustained double-digit EPS growth even in the current environment. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets

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Bill Ackman

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Factual Economics and markets

“We estimate that more than 70% of Otis’ profits come from its service contracts, which represent a growing cash flow annuity as the installed base of elevators grows.”

Bill Ackman, writing in PSH investor letter 17 May 2018 Pershing Square 1Q18 Investor Letter (Pershing Square Holdings)

Pershing Square estimates more than 70% of Otis' profits come from its service contracts.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that Pershing Square made an estimate that more than 70% of Otis' profits came from service, and implicitly that the estimate is sound. True: Pershing Square's May 2018 materials (its United Technologies presentation or letter) contain the estimate, and the profit data available around 2018 (UTC segment disclosures, or the Otis Form 10/10-K that later gave separate New Equipment and Service operating profit for 2017–2018) show service accounting for more than 70% of Otis operating profit. Mostly true: the estimate was made, and the disclosed service share is just under 70% (about 65–70%) or depends on how corporate costs are allocated. Mixed: the estimate was made, but the disclosed data give a service share of about 55–65%. Mostly false: the estimate was made, but the disclosed service share is well below 55%. False: Pershing Square made no such estimate, or the data show service accounted for less than half of Otis profit.

Evidence

Otis - operating by segment 2018-2023| Statista Statista · February 2024
“Otis Worldwide Corporation's operating profit from FY 2018 to FY 2023, by segment (in million U.S. dollars)”
united technologies corporation U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by United Technologies Corporation)
“Segment financial data for the years 2015 through 2017, including financial information about foreign and domestic operations and export sales, appears in Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements in our 2017 Annual Report.”
OTIS INVESTOR & ANALYST DAY Otis Worldwide Corporation (copy hosted on thezenofinvesting.com) · 2020
“New Equipment 20% Service 80%”
OTIS INVESTOR & ANALYST DAY Otis Worldwide Corporation (copy hosted on thezenofinvesting.com) · 2020
“Service profit ~2.5x new equipment profit over product lifecycle”

Reasoning

None of the evidence is a Pershing Square document showing the May 2018 estimate was made. The 2020 Otis analyst-day deck shows a 'New Equipment 20% / Service 80%' split (E3), but the quote does not say what that split measures or for which period. It also gives a lifecycle ratio of about 2.5x (E4), which is not a share of operating profit. The Statista page (E1) shows no figures, and the UTC 10-K excerpt (E2) only points to segment data without giving a separate service figure for Otis, so the criteria cannot be applied.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square estimates more than 70% of Otis' profits come from its service contracts.” (said 17 May 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a8acb4aece8a, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a8acb4aece8a

Claims without a verdict

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