Pershing Square estimates more than 70% of Otis' profits come from its service contracts.

The claim is that Pershing Square made an estimate that more than 70% of Otis' profits came from service, and implicitly that the estimate is sound. True: Pershing Square's May 2018 materials (its United Technologies presentation or letter) contain the estimate, and the profit data available around 2018 (UTC segment disclosures, or the Otis Form 10/10-K that later gave separate New Equipment and Service operating profit for 2017–2018) show service accounting for more than 70% of Otis operating profit. Mostly true: the estimate was made, and the disclosed service share is just under 70% (about 65–70%) or depends on how corporate costs are allocated. Mixed: the estimate was made, but the disclosed data give a service share of about 55–65%. Mostly false: the estimate was made, but the disclosed service share is well below 55%. False: Pershing Square made no such estimate, or the data show service accounted for less than half of Otis profit.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Otis - operating by segment 2018-2023| Statista Statista · February 2024

   “Otis Worldwide Corporation's operating profit from FY 2018 to FY 2023, by segment (in million U.S. dollars)”

2. E2 united technologies corporation U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by United Technologies Corporation)

   “Segment financial data for the years 2015 through 2017, including financial information about foreign and domestic operations and export sales, appears in Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements in our 2017 Annual Report.”

3. E3 OTIS INVESTOR & ANALYST DAY Otis Worldwide Corporation (copy hosted on thezenofinvesting.com) · 2020

   “New Equipment 20% Service 80%”

4. E4 OTIS INVESTOR & ANALYST DAY Otis Worldwide Corporation (copy hosted on thezenofinvesting.com) · 2020

   “Service profit ~2.5x new equipment profit over product lifecycle”

None of the evidence is a Pershing Square document showing the May 2018 estimate was made. The 2020 Otis analyst-day deck shows a 'New Equipment 20% / Service 80%' split (E3), but the quote does not say what that split measures or for which period. It also gives a lifecycle ratio of about 2.5x (E4), which is not a share of operating profit. The Statista page (E1) shows no figures, and the UTC 10-K excerpt (E2) only points to segment data without giving a separate service figure for Otis, so the criteria cannot be applied.