Bill Ackman: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

76 70 81

High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

68 54 82

Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

42 claims

42 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mostly true	Factual	1 Oct 2026	SpaceX is a near monopoly in low-cost space launch. Factual · 1 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	12 Aug 2026	ICE, founded in 2000 by Jeff Sprecher, is a leading global exchange operator and financial data provider built through 25 years of organic growth and acquisitions. Factual · 12 Aug 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	12 Aug 2026	PSH's stock currently trades at a 35% discount to NAV. Factual · 12 Aug 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	12 Aug 2026	Over the last five years, ICE's Exchanges segment grew revenue 8% and profits 10% annually, with margins expanding to 75%. Factual · 12 Aug 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	12 Aug 2026	Howard Hughes' acquisition of Vantage and recruitment of Marc and David underpin its transformation from a pure-play real-estate business into an insurance-focused holding company. Factual · 12 Aug 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	10 Mar 2026	On 2026-03-10 Pershing Square Inc. (PSI) filed to go public, along with Pershing Square USA, Ltd. (PSUS), a new closed-ended investment company managed by Pershing Square. Factual · 10 Mar 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	8 Mar 2026	The mayor was not the target of the terrorists in the attack referred to in the post Ackman replied to. Factual · 8 Mar 2026	Other
Mostly true	Prediction	Aug 2024	Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects. Prediction · Aug 2024	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Aug 2024	Canadian Pacific's 2023 acquisition of Kansas City Southern established the only railroad with a direct route linking Canada, the United States and Mexico. Factual · Aug 2024	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2024	Pershing Square's hedging strategy has generated large profits that were generally reinvested in core holdings at lower valuations during market disruptions. Factual · 2024	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2024	Day One Investors multiplied their investment 22 times versus seven times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Factual · 2024	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2024	Pershing Square's NAV returns compounded at 25.3% over the last six calendar years, 1,320 bps per year above the S&P 500's total return. Factual · 2024	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2024	PSH's stock currently trades at a 26.3% discount to NAV. Factual · 2024	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2024	Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices. Factual · 2024	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2024	SPARC has no underwriting fees, shareholder warrants or founder stock, and has 10 years to execute a deal. Factual · 2024	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	29 Jul 2022	Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Factual · 29 Jul 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	14 Jul 2022	Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Factual · 14 Jul 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	26 Jan 2022	Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Factual · 26 Jan 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	2022	Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2022	PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2022	Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Factual · 2022	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2022	Universal Music Group is the world's leading music entertainment company. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2022	There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022. Factual · 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The Sponsor Warrants restrict selling, hedging or transferring for three years after the initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	Holding cash and government securities while seeking a business combination does not make PSTH or other SPACs illegal investment companies. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	As of August 2021, PSTH has about 11 months remaining to enter into a letter of intent for its initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The two law professors behind the lawsuit told the press their motivation was to reform the entire SPAC industry. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	19 Aug 2021	The SPARC warrants will remove the two-year "shot clock" for a sponsor to complete a transaction. Factual · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	10 Dec 2020	Visa has suspended payments to Pornhub. Factual · 10 Dec 2020	Other
Mostly true	Factual	17 Nov 2020	Once exposed to Covid, a person can infect and kill others. Factual · 17 Nov 2020	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Factual	17 May 2018	Howard Hughes Corp adopted a new revenue recognition standard in Q1 2018 that significantly reduced GAAP revenue and earnings but not intrinsic value or cash flows. Factual · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	17 May 2018	On Platform's earnings call, management reiterated it is on track to separate its two businesses in the second half of 2018. Factual · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2018	Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2018	In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2018	PSH exited its investments in Air Products, Hilton, Nomad Foods, an undisclosed position and Valeant during 2017. Factual · 2018	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Even the largest index funds have only about 20 people (one per ~1,000 companies) in their governance departments. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square has never attempted to hedge short-term market movements but has sought inexpensive hedges against the risk of dramatic market declines. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street often cumulatively own 12%, and as much as 20%, of nearly every public company. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Two days after Pershing Square began building its yuan position, China did a 2% surprise devaluation that substantially increased the cost of the options it had intended to keep buying. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	China and Saudi Arabia have continued to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend their currency pegs. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square largely abandoned its strategy of shorting the credit of highly rated, highly leveraged companies as a hedge in 2009. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	5 May 2014	Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Prediction · 5 May 2014	Economics and markets

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Bill Ackman

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“We also continue to maintain our energy-related hedge to mitigate the impact of a large rise in energy prices.”

Bill Ackman, letter to PSH shareholders 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square 2023 Annual Letter: A Review (GuruFocus)

Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of the date of the 2024 statement, using Pershing Square's 2024 investor letters, PSH interim or annual reports, or portfolio disclosures. True: Pershing Square held an energy-related hedge at that time, for example oil or energy derivatives or options designed to protect against large rises in energy prices, and it had also held one before that date, so that 'continue' fits. Mostly true: the hedge existed but had been put on recently or was described somewhat differently, for example as an inflation hedge with an energy component. Mostly false: the hedge had been closed shortly before the statement, or it was not related to energy prices. False: PSH disclosures from that period show no energy-related hedge.

Evidence

Bill Ackman: Google, Ukraine and Interest Rates GuruFocus · 30 September 2023
“Pershing Square also operates some “hedges” on both rising energy prices and high interest rates.”
Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 15 August 2024 Own record
“The Investment Manager aims to manage risks through careful investment selection and portfolio construction, and may use opportunistic hedging strategies to mitigate market-related downside risk or to take advantage of asymmetric profit opportunities.”
Annual Investor Presentation Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 8 February 2024 Own record
“Proven ability for the existing team to enhance its competencies over time, including macroeconomic hedging and private-to-public investing”
Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. 2024 Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements (June 30, 2024) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record
“Derivative Contracts: Currency Forwards Equity Options Forward Purchase Agreement(4) Interest Rate Swaptions”
Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. 2024 Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements (June 30, 2024) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record
“The Investment Manager aims to manage risks through careful investment selection and portfolio construction, and may use opportunistic hedging strategies to mitigate market-related downside risk or to take advantage of asymmetric profit opportunities.”
Annual Investor Presentation Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 8 February 2024 Own record
“This presentation contains information and analyses relating to all of the publicly disclosed positions over 50 basis points in the portfolio of Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (“PSH” or the “Company”) during 2023.”
Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. 2024 Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements (June 30, 2024) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record
“Net realized gain/(loss) on commodity interests (net of brokerage”
Investment Manager’s Report investorkurs.no (hosting a compilation of Pershing Square Holdings letters, 2017-2024) Own record
“In 2023, our hedges generated 187 basis points (bps) of losses principally due to an energy-related hedge (-108bps) and Japanese interest-rate swaptions (-141bps)”

Reasoning

An independent 2023 report says Pershing Square held hedges against rising energy prices (E1). PSH's own investment manager's report says its 2023 hedges lost money, mainly because of an energy-related hedge (-108bps) (E9). Both show the hedge existed before 2024, so "continue" fits. The June 2024 interim report has a line for commodity interests (E7), but its table of derivatives names no energy or oil contract (E4), and the quotes do not directly confirm the hedge was still held when the statement was made. That leaves some doubt, so the verdict is mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices.” (said 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_6cb8a0806c8b, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6cb8a0806c8b

Claims without a verdict

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