ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

99 claims

99 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 Howard Hughes was created out of the bankruptcy of General Growth as a spinoff of its other assets. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 1 Oct 2026 PSUS holds a portfolio of Pershing Square's best ideas and trades at an 18% discount to cash. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 General Growth emerged from Chapter 11 two years after Pershing Square's investment. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Oct 2026 SpaceX is a near monopoly in low-cost space launch. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 Howard Hughes Holdings has a market capitalisation of about $4 billion. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 As of the interview, Pershing Square owns Microsoft, Meta and Amazon shares. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved false Factual 1 Oct 2026 Ackman estimated, with heavy hedging, that the average tenure of an S&P 500 CEO is probably about 3 to 4 years. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 ICE, founded in 2000 by Jeff Sprecher, is a leading global exchange operator and financial data provider built through 25 years of organic growth and acquisitions. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 PSH's stock currently trades at a 35% discount to NAV. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 12 Aug 2026 U.S. mortgage origination volumes are still about 50% below long-term averages. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 Over the last five years, ICE's Exchanges segment grew revenue 8% and profits 10% annually, with margins expanding to 75%. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 Howard Hughes' acquisition of Vantage and recruitment of Marc and David underpin its transformation from a pure-play real-estate business into an insurance-focused holding company. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square recently made new investments in Visa, Mastercard, Netflix, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange and Alcon. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 22 Mar 2026 Treasury's 2012 change to the Fannie and Freddie senior preferred stock terms was a unilateral amendment, not a negotiated resolution with the companies. Factual · 22 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 10 Mar 2026 On 2026-03-10 Pershing Square Inc. (PSI) filed to go public, along with Pershing Square USA, Ltd. (PSUS), a new closed-ended investment company managed by Pershing Square. Factual · 10 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Promise 10 Mar 2026 In the combined offering, investors in the PSUS IPO will receive PSI shares at no additional consideration (20 PSI shares per 100 PSUS shares bought). Promise · 10 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 10 Mar 2026 Streetwise is now available for sale as of 2026-03-10. Factual · 10 Mar 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 8 Mar 2026 The mayor was not the target of the terrorists in the attack referred to in the post Ackman replied to. Factual · 8 Mar 2026 Other
Mixed Prediction Aug 2024 Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Aug 2024 PSCM's new independent directors include long-term investors in PSH and the Pershing Square funds as well as new investors in the management company. Factual · Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual Aug 2024 There have been no material updates about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since Pershing Square's 2023 Annual Report. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle's limited-time Smoked Brisket launch starting in September 2024 should further improve sales trends. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Aug 2024 CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 Google is on track to spend nearly $50 billion in capital expenditures in 2024, a more than 50% increase over the prior year. Factual · Aug 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 Howard Hughes has pre-sold 51% of inventory at The Launiu condominium tower in Ward Village, having launched sales in February 2024. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 Howard Hughes' average residential land price per acre reached an all-time high of $1.0 million in the most recent quarter (Q2 2024). Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 The Ritz-Carlton Residences in The Woodlands, Houston has pre-sold 65% of its available units, representing $313 million of future revenue. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Aug 2024 CPKC's cost synergies are tracking ahead of plan, with savings from combining procurement and general and administrative functions. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Aug 2024 Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Aug 2024 Canadian Pacific's 2023 acquisition of Kansas City Southern established the only railroad with a direct route linking Canada, the United States and Mexico. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2024 Pershing Square's hedging strategy has generated large profits that were generally reinvested in core holdings at lower valuations during market disruptions. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 Day One Investors multiplied their investment 22 times versus seven times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 Pershing Square's NAV returns compounded at 25.3% over the last six calendar years, 1,320 bps per year above the S&P 500's total return. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 PSH's stock currently trades at a 26.3% discount to NAV. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2024 Day One Investors in Pershing Square grew their equity at a 16.5% compounded annual rate over 20 years versus 10.0% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 SPARC has no underwriting fees, shareholder warrants or founder stock, and has 10 years to execute a deal. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 2024 Pershing Square has not made an activist investment in nearly eight years. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Factual 2 Aug 2022 As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites. Factual · 2 Aug 2022 Other
Mixed Factual 31 Jul 2022 The Pershing Square Foundation is not involved in this case but has supported organizations working to stop human trafficking and image-based abuse. Factual · 31 Jul 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 29 Jul 2022 Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Factual · 29 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 14 Jul 2022 Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Factual · 14 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 Jul 2022 There had been 309 mass shootings in the US year-to-date as of 5 July 2022, about 12 per week. Factual · 5 Jul 2022 Other
Resolved true Factual 4 Jul 2022 Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022. Factual · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2022 Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2022 Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2022 Universal Music Group is the world's leading music entertainment company. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Promise 2022 If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022. Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2022 Rail transportation is cheaper than trucking over longer distances. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2022 Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2022 Day One Investors multiplied their equity investment by 18 times versus six times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants restrict selling, hedging or transferring for three years after the initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Robert Jackson served as an SEC Commissioner between January 2018 and February 2020. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Holding cash and government securities while seeking a business combination does not make PSTH or other SPACs illegal investment companies. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 As of August 2021, PSTH has about 11 months remaining to enter into a letter of intent for its initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Promise 19 Aug 2021 PSTH shareholders will receive $20 per share in cash and one SPARC warrant per share owned, following the cash return. Promise · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Listing SPARC warrants on the NYSE requires an NYSE rule change subject to SEC approval, which is being pursued with the NYSE. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 None of PSTH's directors nor its Sponsor has received or been promised any compensation of any kind. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Had the UMG transaction closed, the Pershing Square Funds would have invested $1.6 billion in PSTH units on the same terms as IPO investors. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The two law professors behind the lawsuit told the press their motivation was to reform the entire SPAC industry. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The SPARC warrants will remove the two-year "shot clock" for a sponsor to complete a transaction. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 10 Dec 2020 Visa has suspended payments to Pornhub. Factual · 10 Dec 2020 Other
Mostly true Factual 17 Nov 2020 Once exposed to Covid, a person can infect and kill others. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 17 Nov 2020 As of mid-November 2020, Covid had infected 11.5 million Americans and killed 252,000, about 1 in 45 of those infected. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Mixed Prediction 16 Nov 2020 Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Prediction 17 May 2018 Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 17 May 2018 HHC arranged third-party debt and preferred and common equity commitments reducing HHC's cash investment in the project to $49 million. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 17 May 2018 The total estimated cost of Howard Hughes' 110 North Wacker project is $761 million, with an estimated 7.9% unlevered yield on cost. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 17 May 2018 Howard Hughes Corp adopted a new revenue recognition standard in Q1 2018 that significantly reduced GAAP revenue and earnings but not intrinsic value or cash flows. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 17 May 2018 On Platform's earnings call, management reiterated it is on track to separate its two businesses in the second half of 2018. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 Nike's emerging markets comprise about 30% of its revenue. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 Pershing Square restructured its Herbalife short position into put options to limit downside exposure, as discussed in its Q3 2017 investor letter. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2018 Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2018 In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2018 Herbalife's recently filed 10-K cover page reports 87.4 million shares outstanding, of which only 22.7 million were held by non-affiliates as of June 30, 2017. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 HHC CEO David Weinreb and President Grant Herlitz recently entered into 10-year employment agreements. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2018 PSH exited its investments in Air Products, Hilton, Nomad Foods, an undisclosed position and Valeant during 2017. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Even the largest index funds have only about 20 people (one per ~1,000 companies) in their governance departments. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square has never attempted to hedge short-term market movements but has sought inexpensive hedges against the risk of dramatic market declines. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street often cumulatively own 12%, and as much as 20%, of nearly every public company. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Two days after Pershing Square began building its yuan position, China did a 2% surprise devaluation that substantially increased the cost of the options it had intended to keep buying. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 China and Saudi Arabia have continued to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend their currency pegs. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square largely abandoned its strategy of shorting the credit of highly rated, highly leveraged companies as a hedge in 2009. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square purchased puts on the Saudi Riyal to hedge against a continued decline in energy prices. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 21 Jul 2014 Herbalife's so-called nutritional clubs are not places where people get together to talk about losing weight. Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 5 May 2014 Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Prediction · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 May 2014 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's fixed-income arbitrage activity is a highly-levered, hedge-fund-like business. Factual · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 5 May 2014 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are more important today in the mortgage market than they have ever been. Factual · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar trades at a price-earnings ratio of 14. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar continues to take market share even during difficult economic environments. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

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Factual Economics and markets

“The company has pre-sold 51% of inventory at its newest condominium tower, The Launiu, despite only having launched sales in February.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author August 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Semiannual 2024 Letter: A Review (GuruFocus)

Howard Hughes has pre-sold 51% of inventory at The Launiu condominium tower in Ward Village, having launched sales in February 2024.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Howard Hughes' Q2 2024 earnings release, supplemental package or 10-Q (or another company disclosure from around August 2024) shows The Launiu in Ward Village with sales launched in February 2024 and about 51% of units pre-sold (rounding within ±1 pp). Mostly true: the pre-sale percentage is within 2–5 pp of 51%, or the launch month is off by one month. Mixed: the pre-sale percentage is off by 5–15 pp. Mostly false: the percentage is materially lower (more than 15 pp below), or the launch date differs substantially. False: there was no such tower or sales launch, or pre-sales were negligible.

Evidence

  1. Document - SEC.gov Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (Exhibit 99.1 to SEC filing) · 26 July 2024
    “At quarter end, 51% of the tower’s 485 residences were pre-sold.”
  2. Final phase emerging for Ward Village’s master-planned community in Kakaako | Honolulu Star-Advertiser Honolulu Star-Advertiser · 16 June 2024
    “An 11th tower at Ward Village, a project called Launiu Ward Village, had attracted buyers for 182 of its 485 units at the end of March, according to the developer, after sales began in February.”

Reasoning

The claim resolves true. Howard Hughes' Q2 2024 earnings release, filed with the SEC in July 2024, states that "at quarter end, 51% of the tower's 485 residences were pre-sold" (E1). That matches the 51% figure exactly. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser identifies Launiu Ward Village as a 485-unit tower whose sales began in February (E2). The matching unit count ties the E1 figure to The Launiu, and both the launch timing and the pre-sale percentage meet the criteria for true.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Howard Hughes has pre-sold 51% of inventory at The Launiu condominium tower in Ward Village, having launched sales in February 2024.” (said August 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_4f611b8ae803, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4f611b8ae803

Claims without a verdict

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