Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 70 81 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
68 54 82 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Ackman's claims
“are not likely to step back in”
Bill Ackman, speaking at Ira Sohn conference 5 May 2014 Bill Ackman Presentation At Ira Sohn 2014 Investment Conference (Hedge Fund Alpha)
Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
This prediction has no deadline, so judge it over a five-year horizon from May 2014 to May 2019. 'Step back in' means banks returning as large net buyers or holders of residential mortgage credit, enough to take a materially larger share of the mortgage market than in 2013–14 and to reduce reliance on the GSEs or government. True: over 2014–2019, banks' share of US residential mortgage debt outstanding, counting whole loans plus non-agency mortgage securities held by depository institutions, stayed flat or fell, and the GSEs/Ginnie Mae remained the dominant source of mortgage funding. Mostly true: bank holdings grew in dollars but the banks' share rose by no more than about 2 percentage points, with no reversal in the dominant role of government-backed funding. Mixed: banks' share rose by roughly 2–5 points, or the measures conflict (for example portfolio lending grew strongly while the overall share stayed flat). Mostly false: banks' share rose by more than 5 points, or banks clearly became a major new source of mortgage investment in one large segment (such as jumbo or portfolio loans) that commentators widely described as banks returning. False: banks clearly re-entered as a meaningful mortgage investor, with a sustained rise in share large enough to displace government-backed funding to a material degree.
Evidence
- Trends in Mortgage Origination and Servicing FDIC Quarterly (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) · 2019
“The share of mortgages outstanding held by banks declined from the 1970s through the 1990s and then leveled off near 24 percent in the past decade.”
- Bank and Nonbank Lending over the past 70 years FDIC Quarterly (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) · 2019
“In second quarter 2019, GSEs held 63 percent of residential mortgages outstanding.”
- Bank and Nonbank Lending over the past 70 years FDIC Quarterly (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) · 2019
“From the 1980s to about 2005, the bank share of non-GSE loans fell and then recovered, with a more pronounced rebound since the financial crisis that started in 2007.”
- Trends in Mortgage Origination and Servicing FDIC Quarterly (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) · 2019
“Nearly all securitization now occurs through entities with government support”
Reasoning
Per E1, the bank share of mortgages outstanding "leveled off near 24 percent in the past decade", so it stayed roughly flat over 2014–2019 rather than rising sharply. E2 and E4 show that government-backed funding remained dominant: GSEs held 63 percent of residential mortgages in Q2 2019, and nearly all securitization ran through government-supported entities. E3 notes a pronounced rebound in banks' share of non-GSE loans since the financial crisis. That points to some growth within a narrower segment, but it does not show a reversal of government-backed dominance. Because E1's figure is approximate and E3 shows a rebound in banks' share of non-GSE loans, a different measure from the overall share the criteria use, the verdict is mostly true rather than fully true.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment.” (said 5 May 2014). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_00db2025e4e6, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_00db2025e4e6
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 135
- Not yet due 9
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 162
- Not checkable 431
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