Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 17 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 14 Feb 2021 Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Bill Gates Prediction Feb 2021 New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction Feb 2021 The coronavirus pandemic will be the defining event of the Gateses' generation, as World War II was for their parents' generation. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla's next FSD computer (version 2) is expected to be about three times as powerful as version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla expects to become the market leader in solar and then go far beyond it. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Musk said he was confident that "they", a group he described as having incredible attention to detail, would buy FSD as soon as it was working on time, which he said he hoped would be later in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Technology
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla thinks Dojo may be the best neural net training computer in the world, possibly by an order of magnitude. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 8 Jan 2021 Grantham believes this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles in financial history, alongside the South Sea bubble, 1929 and 2000. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 If the US does not take a radical step toward a fair, inclusive system, it will not be the leading country in the world for much longer. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 By default, automation will concentrate wealth and power in a tiny number of hands. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 Training systems on video prediction with self-supervised techniques will provide a path towards some level of physical common sense in machines. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Altman said he thinks a model similar to the one used by companies can work for the US as well as it does for companies. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 American Equity would create a society that Altman believes would work much better than today's. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 A machine cannot be trained to be intelligent purely from text. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Automation will significantly change how people think about work. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 If everyone benefits more directly from economic growth, it will be easier to move faster toward a better world with automation. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 In a world where economic growth guarantees basic needs, absolute poverty in America would be eliminated. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 American Equity would cushion the transition from today's jobs to the jobs of tomorrow. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 He said he believes a new US social contract with a floor and no ceiling would lead to a huge increase in US prosperity and keep the US in the global lead. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 All of intelligence could possibly be solved by filling in blanks in language and similar self-supervised prediction. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Automation could create more abundance than people ever dreamed possible. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Eliminating poverty will increase productivity. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 American Equity would free Americans to work on what they really care about, improve social cohesion, and incentivize everyone to think about ways to grow the whole pie. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2021 Active learning and reinforcement learning will become obsolete, useless or easy once self-supervised representation learning or predictive world models are figured out. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2021 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 Without policies addressing the cost of living crisis, any redistribution will be far less effective than it otherwise could be. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2021 As the economy grows, a world could emerge in which every American has their basic needs guaranteed. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 16 Dec 2020 By about 2022, there may be empirical data on how much average men value female intelligence, e.g. what share would pay $5/month for a girlfriend as smart as GPT-3 rather than GPT-2. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 16 Dec 2020 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 15 Dec 2020 Buffett said Carla Walker-Miller needs help and will make the most of it, and guaranteed that she will be a success and will employ lots more people in future than she does now. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 15 Dec 2020 Business at restaurants, gyms and similar venues hit by pandemic fears will come back. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 15 Dec 2020 there will be fraud connected with it Warren Buffett · Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction 16 Nov 2020 Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 16 Nov 2020 If the US does not take Covid seriously, another 500,000 Americans will die of Covid. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 Governments will outlaw cryptocurrency if it becomes viable as an alternative currency. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 The US will keep running large budget deficits in the future, regardless of who is president. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 Both major US parties will pursue an aggressive China policy. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 China, Europe and the US will have central-bank-controlled digital currencies. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 The medium of exchange between central banks will not be digital currency. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 The government will allocate resources through fiscal policy that will be monetized by the central bank, giving more government-controlled, coordinated fiscal and monetary policy. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 Dalio said he thought a Biden administration's policies would look more like the Roosevelt years, probably with larger deficits, larger spending and stimulation, and more monetization. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 Cash will be the worst investment in the current environment because of negative real returns. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 25 Oct 2020 The US position relative to China will worsen over time because time is on China's side. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 6 Sep 2020 Jet fuel, currently ignored, will likely be biofuel. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 6 Sep 2020 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Aug 2020 For autonomous vehicles, the 'short run' of overestimated expectations will last 30 or more years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Aug 2020 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 9 Jul 2020 There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 9 Jul 2020 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 6 Jul 2020 AI systems doing reckoning will surpass human capability. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 6 Jul 2020 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 6 Jul 2020 Reckoning-type AI systems will have enormous scientific and economic impact. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 6 Jul 2020 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction Jul 2020 The scale of the pandemic might change, but its tail properties will remain invariant. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction Jul 2020 If a pandemic is not taken seriously, it will likely run wild, given modern connectivity. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 15 Jun 2020 A system that does not strive to create equal opportunity for all who can work and basic support for those who cannot will inevitably experience some form of revolution. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 15 Jun 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 11 Jun 2020 Tyler Cowen said he suspects the equilibrium flow of new monuments will fall, following what he described as a recent decrease in the stock of standing monuments. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 11 Jun 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only GiveWell Prediction 28 May 2020 Much of GiveWell's work in 2020 will go forward as anticipated. GiveWell · Prediction · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Kurzweil said he believes that by the end of the decade we will be able to realistically model all biology and simulate interventions for diseases without the need for human trials. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 In the coming years, as AI simulation methods take off, researchers will be able to test all trillions of possible solutions to each health problem very quickly. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 AI simulations have the potential to test all trillions of drug possibilities with tens of thousands of simulated patients over simulated years, in hours or days. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Deploying an effective cure in weeks instead of a year could save tens of millions of lives in a future severe pandemic. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2020 will show consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across its cloud offerings. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 Customers' growing digitization needs will be met with better pricing and better unit economics in cloud. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 A third phase will bring structural change, for example in telemedicine. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The institutional failure over the coronavirus pandemic will have effects through the rest of the 2020s. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 31 Mar 2020 Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Mar 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Mar 2020 When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 29 Mar 2020 The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 28 Mar 2020 Biotech and tech for remote work, autonomy and digital services are among the businesses that may survive or even thrive during the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 28 Mar 2020 The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Nate Silver · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 28 Mar 2020 Businesses aligned with fighting the coronavirus or defending against its direct and indirect effects may survive or even thrive. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nate Silver Prediction 27 Mar 2020 Almost nothing Joe Biden does in the next few weeks will matter much for the November 2020 election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 27 Mar 2020 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Nate Silver Prediction 26 Mar 2020 Experts expect about 117,000 reported coronavirus cases in the US by Sunday 2020-03-29. Nate Silver · Prediction · 26 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Microbes are likely to eventually become resistant to hand sanitizer if it is widely used. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 SARS-CoV-2 is not necessarily going to evolve to become less lethal, since it is already highly contagious and asymptomatic for long periods. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 COVID-19 could accelerate biomedicine as much as the Internet accelerated software. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Eventually scientists will be able to trace the most recent roots of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, though perhaps not for some time. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 2020 will establish a lasting new normal, as World War Two did for women in the workforce. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Srinivasan said he thought pandemic defense would become a significant part of China's defense budget going forward. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Balaji Srinivasan said he thought trusted communities would start to emerge in which members have high trust that others are taking hygienic measures. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Work-from-home tools such as home office chat will get really good as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 24 Feb 2020 Building artificial general intelligence, as OpenAI aims to do, may eliminate the need for people to work. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Feb 2020 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 10 Feb 2020 Global health work will become more important in future as climate change makes more people susceptible to disease. Bill Gates · Prediction · 10 Feb 2020 Other global risks
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 7 Feb 2020 Peter Thiel predicts that returns to ideas will be positive and greater than at any time in the last 50 years. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 7 Feb 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 7 Feb 2020 The strategic balance between the US and China will stay very even for a really long time. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 7 Feb 2020 Other global risks
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 15 Jan 2020 Understanding how proteins fold could one day help unlock treatments for a range of diseases. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 15 Jan 2020 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2020 Both Boeing and SpaceX will eventually achieve crewed capsule flight. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2020 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 Grantham's bet was that over the next few quarters from 2020, earnings and profit margins would be crushed. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
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Scott Alexander

Open its page

Prediction Their own work or organisation

“Because they are much more powerful than I am and have a much wider reach, far more people will read their article than will read my response”

Scott Alexander, blog author 14 February 2021 Statement on New York Times Article (Astral Codex Ten)

Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

The main test is readership. True: the available metrics show that the NYT article on Scott Alexander/Slate Star Codex (February 2021) reached many more readers than his response post. Suitable metrics are page views, social shares, subscriber reach, or credible reporting on the reach of each. The second part ('the plan will probably work') holds if later coverage shows the NYT's framing broadly shaped the public perception the article aimed at. Mostly true: the NYT article clearly had more readers, but the margin is smaller than 'far more' or the plan's success is doubtful. Mixed: readership was roughly comparable, or the NYT had more readers but credible coverage shows the article backfired and his framing won out. Mostly false: his response reached a similar or larger audience in relevant communities, and the NYT's larger total reach was modest. False: the evidence shows his response was read by as many people as the NYT article or more.

Evidence

  1. Responses to Cade Metz’s hit piece on Scott Alexander Minds Aren't Magic (mindsarentmagic.org) · 15 February 2021
    “This depraved rubbish got quite a few responses. Please let me know about any I’ve missed.”
  2. In defense of interesting writing on controversial topics Slow Boring (Matt Yglesias) · 14 February 2021
    “Then, on Saturday, Cade Metz’s NYT article about SSC finally dropped. And it’s terrible.”
  3. The Slate Star Codex saga proves a new blasphemy code is emerging among liberals New Statesman · 24 February 2021
    “Not only did the article reveal Alexander’s real name, it also drew attention to various examples of his blasphemy in what many commentators have interpreted as a naked attempt to have him “cancelled”.”
  4. Grey Lady Steel Man Model Citizen (Substack newsletter) · 19 February 2021
    “If you can pull one over on a Times reporter and get them to shout your preferred story through their megaphone, a huge number of people will believe it.”
  5. Grey Lady Steel Man Model Citizen (Substack newsletter) · 19 February 2021
    “That’s why the SSC community is more disgruntled about Metz’s piece than they would be if it had appeared at, say, Buzzfeed (which has great journalists but less reach and trust).”
  6. In defense of interesting writing on controversial topics Slow Boring · 14 February 2021
    “Read Alexander’s post about it, though I think he has too much of a conspiratorial view of this.”
  7. Still Alive Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander's blog) · 21 January 2021 Own record
    “513,000 people read my blog post complaining about the New York Times' attempt to dox me (for comparison, there are 366,000 people in Iceland).”
  8. Still Alive Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander's blog) · 21 January 2021 Own record
    “So many people cancelled their subscription that the Times' exasperated customer service agents started pre-empting callers with "Is this about that blog thing?"”
  9. February 2021 – Shtetl-Optimized Shtetl-Optimized (Scott Aaronson's blog) · 14 February 2021
    “I hope today’s New York Times article draws tens of thousands of curious new readers to Scott’s new-yet-old blog, Astral Codex Ten”
  10. Silicon Valley isn't full of fascists Noahpinion (Noah Smith) · 14 February 2021
    “Eight months later, that article is finally out, and it’s every bit as negative as Siskind feared.”

Reasoning

None of the evidence gives page views, shares or reach figures for either the February 2021 NYT article or Scott Alexander's response to it. E8's figure of 513,000 readers is for his earlier post about the attempted doxxing, and it comes from the subject himself, so it does not measure the February response. The independent commentary (E3, E4, E5, E6, E7, E10, E11) shows a critical reception and describes the NYT's reach only in qualitative terms. That is not enough to apply the readership test or to judge whether the NYT's framing shaped public perception.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work.” (said 14 February 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_24d33ce3d80f, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_24d33ce3d80f

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.