Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work.

The main test is readership. True: the available metrics show that the NYT article on Scott Alexander/Slate Star Codex (February 2021) reached many more readers than his response post. Suitable metrics are page views, social shares, subscriber reach, or credible reporting on the reach of each. The second part ('the plan will probably work') holds if later coverage shows the NYT's framing broadly shaped the public perception the article aimed at. Mostly true: the NYT article clearly had more readers, but the margin is smaller than 'far more' or the plan's success is doubtful. Mixed: readership was roughly comparable, or the NYT had more readers but credible coverage shows the article backfired and his framing won out. Mostly false: his response reached a similar or larger audience in relevant communities, and the NYT's larger total reach was modest. False: the evidence shows his response was read by as many people as the NYT article or more.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Responses to Cade Metz’s hit piece on Scott Alexander Minds Aren't Magic (mindsarentmagic.org) · 15 February 2021

   “This depraved rubbish got quite a few responses. Please let me know about any I’ve missed.”

2. E2 In defense of interesting writing on controversial topics Slow Boring (Matt Yglesias) · 14 February 2021

   “Then, on Saturday, Cade Metz’s NYT article about SSC finally dropped. And it’s terrible.”

3. E3 The Slate Star Codex saga proves a new blasphemy code is emerging among liberals New Statesman · 24 February 2021

   “Not only did the article reveal Alexander’s real name, it also drew attention to various examples of his blasphemy in what many commentators have interpreted as a naked attempt to have him “cancelled”.”

4. E4 Grey Lady Steel Man Model Citizen (Substack newsletter) · 19 February 2021

   “If you can pull one over on a Times reporter and get them to shout your preferred story through their megaphone, a huge number of people will believe it.”

5. E5 Grey Lady Steel Man Model Citizen (Substack newsletter) · 19 February 2021

   “That’s why the SSC community is more disgruntled about Metz’s piece than they would be if it had appeared at, say, Buzzfeed (which has great journalists but less reach and trust).”

6. E6 In defense of interesting writing on controversial topics Slow Boring · 14 February 2021

   “Read Alexander’s post about it, though I think he has too much of a conspiratorial view of this.”

7. E7 Still Alive Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander's blog) · 21 January 2021 Own record

   “513,000 people read my blog post complaining about the New York Times' attempt to dox me (for comparison, there are 366,000 people in Iceland).”

8. E8 Still Alive Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander's blog) · 21 January 2021 Own record

   “So many people cancelled their subscription that the Times' exasperated customer service agents started pre-empting callers with "Is this about that blog thing?"”

9. E9 February 2021 – Shtetl-Optimized Shtetl-Optimized (Scott Aaronson's blog) · 14 February 2021

   “I hope today’s New York Times article draws tens of thousands of curious new readers to Scott’s new-yet-old blog, Astral Codex Ten”

10. E10 Silicon Valley isn't full of fascists Noahpinion (Noah Smith) · 14 February 2021

    “Eight months later, that article is finally out, and it’s every bit as negative as Siskind feared.”

None of the evidence gives page views, shares or reach figures for either the February 2021 NYT article or Scott Alexander's response to it. E8's figure of 513,000 readers is for his earlier post about the attempted doxxing, and it comes from the subject himself, so it does not measure the February response. The independent commentary (E3, E4, E5, E6, E7, E10, E11) shows a critical reception and describes the NYT's reach only in qualitative terms. That is not enough to apply the readership test or to judge whether the NYT's framing shaped public perception.