2,528 claims · page 13 of 26
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | Scott Alexander is testing Manifold Markets as a knowledge-generation device, using a market on how he will rank interventions in an updated Biodeterminists' Guide To Pregnancy. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 11 Mar 2022 | The eighteenth cohort of Emergent Ventures winners was announced. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 11 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 9 Mar 2022 | Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Sam Bankman-Fried. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 9 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 7 Mar 2022 | An excerpt from Tyler Cowen's book Talent, with Daniel Gross, was published. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 7 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said Dario Amodei was getting a PhD in a technical field at the time and so was not working directly on the interest area she described, which she connected with her start in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's Twitter handle is @anthropicAI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic has a Twitter account. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela and Dario Amodei both donated small amounts to global health organizations, such as malaria prevention groups, while still in school. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's website states its mission as building steerable, interpretable and reliable AI systems. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's societal impacts team is about 1.5 people and has been working on AI evaluations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | At Anthropic there is no strong distinction between research and engineering: researchers write code and engineers contribute to research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's policy team is about 1.5 people as of late 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic generally tweets about its recent research releases from its Twitter account. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei began her career in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Stripe had about 40 people when Daniela Amodei joined. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic is currently focused on research and development rather than deployment of products for revenue. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's website anthropic.com is the best place to see most of its recent work. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic staff all have lunch together every day. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic is hiring a lot of people as of March 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic chose to incorporate as a public benefit corporation when it was founded. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic has about 35 employees as of late 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Mar 2022 | Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Mar 2022 | In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Feb 2022 | Tyler Cowen published a multi-part Conversation with Chuck Klosterman, longer than usual. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Feb 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 12 Feb 2022 | TechCrunch interviewed Tyler Cowen about crypto. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 12 Feb 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla began production at its Texas and Berlin factories in the fourth quarter of 2021. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla sees its energy business as probably reaching a terawatt-hour per year in the long term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla does not have incubators. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Elon Musk | Promise | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla will start delivering Texas-built Model Ys with structural battery pack and 4680 cells after final certification, which should be fairly soon. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Long term, effectively every car will have FSD. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla's accumulated profitability since its inception became positive with $5.5 billion of GAAP net income in 2021. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla short-changed its energy business in 2021, with vehicles taking priority over energy. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Promise | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla will possibly announce new factory locations by the end of 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla grew its vehicle volumes by nearly 90% in 2021. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla reached the highest operating margin in the auto industry in the last widely reported quarter, over 14% GAAP operating margin. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla is not currently working on a $25,000 car. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 26 Jan 2022 | Pershing Square acquired more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix over several days from Friday, making it a top-20 shareholder. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 26 Jan 2022 | Pershing Square had never previously owned a stake in Netflix. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | 26 Jan 2022 | Pershing Square began analyzing Netflix in connection with its Universal Music Group investment, before Netflix's stock price declined sharply the previous Friday. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Members of Anthropic's founding group had previously done a lot of safety research together at different organizations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 Anthropic pursues its mission primarily through generative model research and AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Promise | 2022 | SPARC will have no shareholder warrants or underwriting fees and only common stock outstanding, other than 20% out-of-the-money Sponsor and Director Warrants on 5.21% of the post-transaction company. Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | A few jobs before Anthropic, Daniela Amodei worked at the tech startup Stripe. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square does not use hedges to protect its mark-to-market performance from short-term downward volatility. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square has largely succeeded in having constructive engagements with portfolio companies, other than in the initial stages of a handful of proxy contests. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square has always sought to have positive, constructive engagements with its portfolio companies and their boards and management teams. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic structures its teams with capabilities research as a central pillar and safety research wrapping around every project. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | The failure to complete the proposed business combination involving UMG was unexpected because Pershing Square's, its counsel's, the counterparty's and the NYSE's understanding of the SPAC business combination rules appeared to permit the proposed transaction structure. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Ackman stated that, given recent market volatility and a difficult IPO environment, PSTH's $1 billion to $3 billion of committed capital from Pershing Square and its Tontine warrant structure, designed to minimize the risk of shareholder redemptions, make it an even more attractive counterparty for a merger. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square initiated its investment in Lowe's in April 2018. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square has permanently retired from activist short selling. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei joined the startup Stripe when it had about 40 people. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic publishes its safety research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei joined Stripe when it was not much bigger than Anthropic is now. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square funds taking over the UMG transaction preserved its track record for closing deals and eliminated potential litigation risk from a failed transaction. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Under its new approach to investor relations, Pershing Square spent effectively all business time on investments and generated the best performance in its history. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | All of Pershing Square's interactions with companies over the last five years have been cordial, constructive, and productive. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square is one of the few investment managers in the world with such a large capital commitment from the individuals making investment decisions. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei worked at several NGOs in Washington DC early in her career. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | The majority of Anthropic's employees had worked together in some form in the past. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei began her career in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Stripe, when she worked there, operated in the highly regulated financial services space with many checks and balances on the company. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | Pershing Square said it believes the SPARC structure will, over time, enable it to own large stakes in high quality, newly public businesses that meet its investment criteria. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square worked for nine months on behalf of PSTH to close the UMG transaction but was unable to resolve regulatory issues in time before the transaction deadline. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Promise | 2022 | If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022. Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square exited its original investment in Canadian Pacific (CP) in 2016 and has since closely followed the company. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic was founded at the beginning of 2021 by a team of seven people who moved together from OpenAI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen and his team did not foresee the Delta variant when making their 2021 predictions, as many others also did not. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen saw about 30 movies in a theater in 2021. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen sits on the advisory board of the University of Austin and has no governing role there. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Promise | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen and Daniel Gross's book Talent will be published by St. Martin's on May 22, 2022. Tyler Cowen · Promise · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus wrote the 2001 book The Algebraic Mind, and its predictions have so far held true. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 7 Dec 2021 | Source Code covers Bill Gates's life from his childhood through the early days of Microsoft. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 12 Nov 2021 | Demis Hassabis spoke at COP26 in the week before 12 November 2021 about how AI can potentially help with the climate crisis. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 12 Nov 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 4 Nov 2021 | Isomorphic Labs has been launched as a new Alphabet company. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 4 Nov 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | The company just announced a fundamental change, including looking at and reporting on its business as two segments. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta announced a new fund (the XR Programs and Research Fund) a few weeks before October 2021 to collaborate with people on early-stage development. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Facebook is one of the most used products in the history of the world. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | The company's apps and their brands (e.g. Instagram, WhatsApp) are not being renamed with the Meta rebrand. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | For the last seven years Meta's research team has worked on a broad array of technologies for next-generation platforms. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Facebook is one of the most used technology products in the history of the world. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg studied Classics, and the word "meta" comes from the Greek word meaning "beyond". Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | The company formerly called Facebook, Inc. is now named Meta. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | The company now looks at and reports on its business as two segments: family of apps and future platforms. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | The company's story started in a dorm room and grew into a family of apps. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Starting 28 October 2021, the company Facebook is renamed Meta. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | When Zuckerberg started Facebook, people mostly typed text on websites. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta's mobile apps are free to use. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Facebook was born on a college campus and on the web. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg's original founder's letter said: "we don't build services to make money; we make money to build better services." Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | In 2021 Meta opened up support for more external research on AR/VR impacts. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg said that billions of people love the company's services and that hundreds of millions of businesses rely on its tools, and he linked this to its commerce tools being offered at cost or with modest fees. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
“I’m testing Manifold as a knowledge-generation device.”
Scott Alexander, ACX author 14 March 2022 Mantic Monday 3/14/22 (Astral Codex Ten)
Scott Alexander is testing Manifold Markets as a knowledge-generation device, using a market on how he will rank interventions in an updated Biodeterminists' Guide To Pregnancy.
Not researched Checkable, but outside the sample that was researched.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander is testing Manifold Markets as a knowledge-generation device, using a market on how he will rank interventions in an updated Biodeterminists' Guide To Pregnancy.” (said 14 March 2022). Verdict: not researched. Reliability API, claim c_893dddd192e0, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_893dddd192e0
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.