Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

1,587 claims · page 12 of 16

1,587 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 Among donors who gave in 2015, about 35% gave again in 2016, down from about 40% who gave again in 2015. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 If GiveWell influenced the same proportion of unattributed donations as attributed ones, it would have influenced an additional $20 million not in its headline money moved figure. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2018 In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2018 From January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2015, investors in the Pershing Square strategy earned a 20.5% compounded annual return versus 7.8% for the S&P 500. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016 GiveWell saw growth in the number of donors and amount donated in every donor size category reviewed, except donors giving $1 million or more per year. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 In 2016, donors who gave $2,000 or more accounted for about 90% of GiveWell's money moved, excluding Good Ventures. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's best guess is that it is undercounting money moved by $10-20 million. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell estimates about one-third of its 2016 expenses ($2.0 million) supported traditional top charity work and about two-thirds supported the Open Philanthropy Project, the same breakdown as in 2015. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's best guess is that it played a significant role in influencing an additional $10-20 million of donations to AMF, GiveDirectly and SCI in 2016 that are not counted in its headline money moved. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's true money moved in 2016 may be somewhat higher than recorded, since some donors giving directly to recommended charities may have been influenced by its research without reporting it. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 2018 GiveWell's direct web traffic increased and traffic from other non-paid sources decreased between 2015 and 2016. GiveWell · Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Satya Nadella uses an iPhone, an Android phone and a Windows phone. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Microsoft is the only cloud provider that operates in China under Chinese law. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Satya Nadella was a developer at Sun Microsystems, which he joined in 1990. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 In the mid-to-late 1990s Microsoft bought a couple of companies, which were some of its largest acquisitions. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Microsoft has 43 data center regions as of October 2017. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 12 Sep 2017 Ray Dalio started going to China in 1984. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 12 Sep 2017 Bridgewater has managed money since 1993 for Chinese institutions outside China. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 12 Sep 2017 In the 1980s Dalio was wrong in expecting the worst economic conditions. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 12 Sep 2017 Dalio said he was told that his process of being radically truthful was hurting people's morale. Ray Dalio · Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 21 Jul 2017 OpenAI does not lower its machine learning hiring bar for people who want to work on safety. Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 21 Jul 2017 Amodei said that he and OpenAI focus a lot on reinforcement learning because it, and extended versions of it, seems a better fit for what intelligent agents do in general. Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 21 Jul 2017 Amodei said he thinks that, broadly, most people at OpenAI are worried about the issues under discussion or at least think they are worth thinking about, and he set this apart from the staff actively doing technical work on them. Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 21 Jul 2017 Dario Amodei has not been closely involved in OpenAI's rapid hiring and growth, except on the safety side. Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 21 Jul 2017 Dario Amodei's PhD was not in machine learning. Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 21 Jul 2017 OpenAI is a nonprofit AI research lab. Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 21 Jul 2017 Amodei said he thinks OpenAI has generally been very selective in whom it picks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 21 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Skin in the Game is Volume 5 of Taleb's Incerto. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb's essay on the minority rule has been downloaded several million times. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb does not employ a full-time assistant and instead employs people for specific tasks. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Nassim Taleb Prediction 10 Jul 2017 A book that is interesting today and would have been interesting 20 years ago will probably still be interesting 20 years from now. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb said he had posted a lot of things online and organized the book based on the excitement the chapters brought, adding "Of course, not 100%." Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb made many local mistakes in his books and went back and corrected almost all of them without anybody knowing. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 The first 40 pages of the Skin in the Game manuscript explain skin in the game. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 22 Jun 2017 Facebook used to have a sense that connecting people online would by itself make many things in the world better. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 22 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Promise 22 Jun 2017 Zuckerberg said he thought the new Groups tools gave Facebook a good shot at connecting a billion people to meaningful communities within about five years. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 22 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 16 Jun 2017 SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Elon Musk · Promise · 16 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos said he told the Amazon Studios team it was debatable whether a recently greenlit original would be interesting enough, that it was complicated to produce, that the business terms were not that good, and that there were other opportunities. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos frequently uses "disagree and commit" on decisions himself. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos works in an Amazon building named Day 1 and kept the name when he moved buildings. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos has been reminding people that it is Day 1 for a couple of decades. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos said he replied right away to the team with "I disagree and commit and hope it becomes the most watched thing we've ever made." Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 Marvin Minsky was Kurzweil's mentor for 54 years until Minsky's death about a year before March 2017. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 Ray Kurzweil said he visited Rosenblatt in 1962 when he was 14. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he had never met the CEOs of any of the four airlines, though he added that he may have met one and shaken his hand at a Texas business Hall of Fame event. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he usually sees him maybe twice a year, at Sun Valley and perhaps one other time. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire had received nothing but good reports about the CEO, whom Greg Abel had known 20 years earlier. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said that once he and the two others he referred to as "the three of us" learned that it was regarded as unfriendly, they had no intention of making one; the surrounding remarks refer to the 3G people and to Unilever. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that there would be another deal involving Kraft Heinz at some point, and said he did not know when. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire Hathaway does not make hostile takeover bids. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Warren Buffett Promise 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire will run the same NCAA bracket contest among its employees in 2017 as it did in 2016. Warren Buffett · Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 As of February 2017, no acquisition deal is in the works at Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire closed its purchase of $3 billion of Dow Chemical preferred stock in April 2009, when the market had collapsed. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he does not work on acquisitions "that way" himself, referring back to an approach mentioned just before. He said he tells the seller he will make an offer if they want one and won't make one if they don't. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Unilever was the only deal in that area that Buffett seriously thought about and that made sense. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 27 Feb 2017 If exactly one Berkshire employee reaches the sweet 16 in the contest, that employee will receive $1 million a year for life. Warren Buffett · Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 As of February 2017, there is no backup deal after the Unilever approach. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire tried to time its sales of Dow Chemical stock once it rose above the conversion price, selling more aggressively as the price rose, because it did not want to own the roughly 72 million common shares. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 On 27 February 2017, asked whether he was working on anything, Buffett said he is always looking but that there was "nothing close". Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire's US Air preferred stock had a clause under which unpaid dividends compounded at a good rate. Warren Buffett · Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 11 Jan 2017 Thiel said he had watched the first season of HBO's Silicon Valley, that the character based on him died, and that he liked the character. Peter Thiel · Factual · 11 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will take the job he is currently expecting to take. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would be involved in at least one published or accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander makes predictions at the beginning of every year. Scott Alexander · Factual · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would get at least one article published on a major site such as Huffington Post, Vox or New Statesman in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will attend the Bay Area Solstice in the coming year (2017). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that by the end of 2017 SSC would have no co-bloggers with more than 5 posts. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will pass his Boards in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman said he expected that someday, when the history of YC is written, people will talk about its software as one of its secret weapons. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC Continuity is YC's growth-stage fund. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 In 2016 about 22.3% of companies YC funded had a woman on the founding team and about 12.5% of founders funded were women. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman said he expected YC's flagship program to significantly strengthen over the course of 2017 and beyond. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 Besides Airbnb, Dropbox and Stripe, more than 50 YC companies are each worth more than $100 million. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Promise 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman will teach YC's online startup course in 2017. Sam Altman · Promise · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 In 2016, YC funded 68 female founders at 52 companies. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC gives companies in its program $120k for 7% ownership and works intensively with them for 3 months, then less intensively afterwards. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 The percentage of women who apply to YC is roughly the same as the percentage of women who get funded. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 Hacker News remains focused on startups, programming and other intellectually interesting topics. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC invested about $27 million in its Winter and Summer 2016 batches and about $187 million so far in later-stage investments from its first Continuity fund. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 As of January 1, 2017, Y Combinator had funded over 3,200 founders and 1,470 companies. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 Paul Graham and Jessica Livingston put in place a YC cultural value of doing the right thing for founders even when not in YC's short-term interest. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Sam Altman Factual 1 Jan 2017 YC sees significant dropoffs of underrepresented founders at stages after YC, such as raising late-stage capital. Sam Altman · Factual · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy will stop using coal altogether at its power plants from 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's treasury shares have not been acquired for the purpose of reducing the share capital. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 Since August 2016, 61% of DONG Energy's sourced biomass has been certified as sustainable. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's dialogue with investors and analysts is subject to restrictions starting three weeks before publication of its financial reports. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction 2017 DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's 2016 EBITDA from continuing operations was DKK 19.1 billion, underlying growth of 95%. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy's target is that 60% of the biomass it buys during 2017 will be certified as sustainable. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy aims to phase out coal completely from its power and heat generation by 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ørsted Factual 2017 DONG Energy's employee satisfaction index rose from 74 in 2015 to 76 in 2016. Ørsted · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy targets an average ROCE up to 2023 of 12-14% for the Group, 13-15% for Wind Power and 9-11% for Distribution & Customer Solutions. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual 2017 In his early training period Grantham adopted Ben Graham's value-oriented biases. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
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Scott Alexander

Open its page

Prediction Their own work or organisation

“I don’t attend the New York Solstice: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger January 2018 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Reasoning

His personal attendance at an event is private unless he reported it.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_54556202d9ea, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_54556202d9ea

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.