Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018.
Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
His personal attendance at an event is private unless he reported it.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_54556202d9ea, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_54556202d9ea
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
-
Resolved true
“I actually remember and grade these predictions publicly sometime in the year 2023: 90%”
-
Mostly true
“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”
The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.
-
Mostly true
“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”
-
Mostly true
“In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”
-
Resolved true
“So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.